1307 Church St · Commerce, TX 75428

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1950 6,316 sqft lot $102/sqft · 7% below area Est $92k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for that Cottage you've always wanted? This could be the one you've been searching for! Put your own vision to work of a Bed and Breakfast, or your own little home. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath with large kitchen and backyard is perfect. This property has many opportunities to be made into whatever you want it to be. Perfect First home or income producing. It sits just in town near the College, restaurants and shopping. It will take some TLC to get it ready but it will also take you back in time with it's cuteness. Central Heat & Air, original hardwood floors, shutters, new window screens, the whole works. Room to expand also with it's large backyard. You can add a carport or garage with workshop. There is a storage unit in the backyard. This property is to be sold AS IS. Open up your mind and let it go. Schedule a tour today and start your vision. No HOA here!

Key facts

• New window screens
• Central heat and air
• Backyard

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• BACKYARD
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW WINDOW SCREENS
• STORAGE UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commerce El (400 students, 78% FRL); Commerce Middle (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 331 students, 78% FRL); Commerce H S (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 465 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.94%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,687
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -7.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Maple St	0.59mi	2/1.0	924 (+11%)	0mo	$129,999	$141	51
501 Chestnut	0.37mi	2/1.0	956 (+14%)	23mo	$119,900	$125	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,871
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $26,177
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75428

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $301	+0% $277	+5% $252	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $232	+0% $277	+5% $321	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $298	base $277	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Sycamore St Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	1045	$1,200	$1.15	46d	1	0.13mi
1004 Park St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	665	$700	$1.05	0d	1	0.16mi
1004 Park St Commerce, TX	3.0	1.0	1082	$925	$0.85	19d	1	0.16mi
1613 Park St Commerce, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$845	$1.13	46d	1	0.29mi
1315 Oneal St Unit B Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,275	$1.27	4d	1	0.33mi
1315 Oneal St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	0d	1	0.33mi
904 N Neal St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,250	$1.21	14d	1	0.39mi
904 N Neal St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,250	$1.21	17d	1	0.39mi
1313 Hunt St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	46d	1	0.41mi
2004 Pecan St Commerce, TX	2.0	3.0	1014	$1,200	$1.18	46d	1	0.49mi
811 Bishop St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$850	$1.05	46d	1	0.51mi
1618 Bois D'Arc St Unit 102 Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$895	$0.90	24d	1	0.58mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1303 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$925	$1.32	46d	1	0.67mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1809 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	46d	1	0.67mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1805 6 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	27d	1	0.67mi
409 Maple St Unit 409A Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$625	$0.57	1d	1	0.77mi
801 Culver St Unit A05 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	870	$1,025	$1.18	0d	1	1.05mi
801 Culver St Unit C209 Commerce, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,175	$1.12	21d	1	1.05mi
801 Culver St Unit D209 Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	770	$1,250	$1.62	3d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Looking for that Cottage you've always wanted? This could be the one you've been searching for! Put your own vision to work of a Bed and Breakfast, or your own little home. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath with large kitchen and backyard is perfect. This property has many opportunities to be made into whatever you want it to be. Perfect First home or income producing. It sits just in town near the College, restaurants and shopping. It will take some TLC to get it ready but it will also take you back in time with it's cuteness. Central Heat & Air, original hardwood floors, shutters, new window screens, the whole works. Room to expand also with it's large backyard. You can add a carport or garage with workshop. There is a storage unit in the backyard. This property is to be sold AS IS. Open up your mind and let it go. Schedule a tour today and start your vision. No HOA here!

18. 2026-05-04
    historical Active Option Contract 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Looking for that Cottage you've always wanted? This could be the one you've been searching for! Put your own vision to work of a Bed and Breakfast, or your own little home. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath with large kitchen and backyard is perfect. This property has many opportunities to be made into whatever you want it to be. Perfect First home or income producing. It sits just in town near the College, restaurants and shopping. It will take some TLC to get it ready but it will also take you back in time with it's cuteness. Central Heat & Air, original hardwood floors, shutters, new window screens, the whole works. Room to expand also with it's large backyard. You can add a carport or garage with workshop. There is a storage unit in the backyard. This property is to be sold AS IS. Open up your mind and let it go. Schedule a tour today and start your vision. No HOA here!

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $85,000 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Looking for that Cottage you've always wanted? This could be the one you've been searching for! Put your own vision to work of a Bed and Breakfast, or your own little home. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath with large kitchen and backyard is perfect. This property has many opportunities to be made into whatever you want it to be. Perfect First home or income producing. It sits just in town near the College, restaurants and shopping. It will take some TLC to get it ready but it will also take you back in time with it's cuteness. Central Heat & Air, original hardwood floors, shutters, new window screens, the whole works. Room to expand also with it's large backyard. You can add a carport or garage with workshop. There is a storage unit in the backyard. This property is to be sold AS IS. Open up your mind and let it go. Schedule a tour today and start your vision. No HOA here!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$506
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,295
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7977
• State rank: #687 of 826 in TX

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #13696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 11,531
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,531
• Household income: $51,424
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.08%
• Current HPI: 289.0436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $85,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,545 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.