2240 Providence Church Rd · Gumlog, GA 30553

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1996 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special. 1.46 acre wooded lot with public water located in North Hart district convenient to I-85. Home is a 1996 model Horton Dynasty double wide in distressed condition. This home will not quality for a conventional loan. Sold As-Is. No Disclosure. Owner has mobile home title in hand. Owner/agent. MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED, ASKING FOR HIGHEST AND BEST OFFER TO BE SUBMITTED NO LATER THAN 3PM ON 5/8/2026.

Key facts

• 1.46 acre wooded lot
• Convenient to i-85
• Distressed condition

Tags

• 1.46 ACRE WOODED LOT
• PUBLIC WATER
• NORTH HART DISTRICT
• CONVENIENT TO I-85
• DISTRESSED CONDITION
• SOLD AS-IS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Woodford Roberts subdivision, Lavonia, GA
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone service available
• Home design: Manufactured home / Single-family residence; One level; Located on 1.46-acre lot; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built in 1996; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Manufactured house structure
• Exterior features: Private lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Mud room laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hart County (town): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #82 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Hart Elementary School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #509 of 1,228 statewide, top 42%, 656 students, 57% FRL); Hart County Middle School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #185 of 470 statewide, top 40%, 816 students, 60% FRL); Hart County High School (math 18% / reading 17%, grade F, #264 of 424 statewide, top 63%, 1,077 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 170 units permitted in Hart County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hart County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.50%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $33,982
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $90,089
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30553

• Home prices YoY: -7.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $764	+0% $736	+5% $709	+10% $681
Rent	-10% $608	-5% $672	+0% $736	+5% $801	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $777	-0.5pp $757	base $736	+0.5pp $716	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Under Contract 416-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $79,900 New 416-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $8,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,931
• After-tax cash flow: $6,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hart County
• NCES district ID: 1302730
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 27.08/100
• National rank: #7047
• State rank: #82 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,454

Population outlook (Hart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,855 people
• By 2030: 25,887 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 25,627 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 24,939 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 23,150 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 19,492 · -24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.4% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+49.6 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.4 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.92%
• Current HPI: 385.1997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $81,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $79,900 GAMLS