Montgomery Plan · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$143,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cimarron Park, a all age active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a brand new, beautiful, 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring approximately 1352.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Lake Elmo, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience, an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light and beautiful appliances. The spacious kitchen will be beautifully designed with features like stunning countertops, stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, ideal

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Dual vanities
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $143,900

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Located in Lake Elmo, MN
• Construction: Built as part of the Montgomery plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,352

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); Plan named "Montgomery"

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $995 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $141,741 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.99%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $28,023
• Equity at exit: $21,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $90,607
• Equity at exit: $12,442

Cash invested: $40,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$180 /mo · $2,158/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $143,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $905	-5% $855	+0% $806	+5% $756	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $626	-5% $716	+0% $806	+5% $896	+10% $986
Rate	-1.0pp $878	-0.5pp $842	base $806	+0.5pp $768	+1.0pp $730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,975
• Closing costs: $4,317
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9910 5th Street Ln N Lake Elmo, MN	3.0	2.5	1733	$2,695	$1.56	25d	1	1.29mi
503 Karen Dr Woodbury, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$1,688	$2.12	0d	35	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $143,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,900 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,061
• − Property taxes: −$2,158
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$4,186
• Taxable income: $7,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $7,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a great layout. It's ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Increases the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Increases the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B