501 Lincoln St · Denton, MD 21629

$118,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 535 Days on market

Built 1880 3,600 sqft lot $71/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is being sold As/ Is. Located on a corner lot. Owner has completed some work to the property, but additional work will be required. Please contact Denton Planning and Codes to verify remaining requirements to obtain an occupancy permit.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 535 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.6% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#260 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 535 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 535 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.47%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,598
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -52.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 S 1st St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-3%)	1mo	$500,000	$309	69
512 Lincoln St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-15%)	8mo	$294,000	$207	65
711 Gay St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	22mo	$235,000	$145	64
114 S 3rd St	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,524 (-8%)	16mo	$219,000	$144	54
201 S 2nd St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-8%)	16mo	$250,000	$163	51
314 Kerr Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+6%)	6mo	$340,000	$193	50
501 Elaine Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	22mo	$339,900	$180	44
205 S 2nd St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,456 (-12%)	18mo	$325,000	$223	43
107 Ellerslie Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-10%)	18mo	$399,000	$268	43
111 Riverton Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,868 (+12%)	16mo	$219,000	$117	41
118 Edenton Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-11%)	14mo	$300,000	$203	38
304 Kerr Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+9%)	20mo	$330,000	$183	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $110,731
• Equity at exit: $106,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.77×
• Total profit: $289,690
• Equity at exit: $229,248

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21629

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $796	-5% $762	+0% $729	+5% $695	+10% $662
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $650	+0% $729	+5% $808	+10% $887
Rate	-1.0pp $788	-0.5pp $759	base $729	+0.5pp $698	+1.0pp $667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1402 Blue Heron Dr Denton, MD	3.0	2.5	1752	$2,000	$1.14	45d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 535 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 534 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 533 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 532 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 530 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $118,000 Active 529 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 526 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 525 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,000 Active 524 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 523 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,000 Active 520 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 519 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 518 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 517 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 516 DOM
16. 2025-04-14
    price $135,000 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Property is being sold As/ Is. Located on a corner lot. Owner has completed some work to the property, but additional work will be required. Please contact Denton Planning and Codes to verify remaining requirements to obtain an occupancy permit.

17. 2024-12-30
    listed $159,900 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Property is being sold As/ Is. Located on a corner lot. Owner has completed some work to the property, but additional work will be required. Please contact Denton Planning and Codes to verify remaining requirements to obtain an occupancy permit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $7,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $6,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Denton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #13277

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, MD
• City population: 10,285
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.95%
• Current HPI: 356.683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,200 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.