112 Post Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Condo · 148 Days on market

Built 2006 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

Key facts

• Walled courtyard
• Built in grill
• Elevated skydeck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EAST FACING VIEWS
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• WALLED COURTYARD
• ELEVATED SKYDECK
• BUILT IN GRILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-419 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $34,834
• Equity at exit: $83,572

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $125,890
• Equity at exit: $98,807

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,465/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA est. from 8 same-building comps: −$402
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,883

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Contingent 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $295,000 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

4. 2026-04-06
   status Active 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

5. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Contingent 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

6. 2026-02-23
   price $305,000 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

7. 2026-02-21
   status Active 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

8. 2026-02-16
   historical Active Contingent 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

9. 2026-02-01
   price $315,000 1844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

   Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

10. 2025-11-27
    listed $320,000 Active 1844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1844 chars)

    Enjoy every beautiful day from this spacious Embarcadero townhome, perfectly positioned in the best location in the community, a prime corner lot with east-facing views of the Santa Rita Mountains. Designed for comfort, flexibility, and privacy, the home features two primary suites with walk-in closets, one conveniently located on the main level, and another privately situated upstairs. A third bedroom adds even more versatility for guests, an office, or hobbies. With its generous proportions, this is a large townhome ideal for full-time living, a second home, or a vacation rental. New roof and water heater as of April 2026. Outdoor living shines with multiple private spaces, including a charming walled courtyard on the lower level, and an elevated skydeck featuring a built-in grill, an outdoor sink, and added privacy from the mature tree canopy. The open kitchen showcases custom cabinetry, granite countertops, new stainless steel kitchen appliances, while the utility room includes a stackable washer and dryer for everyday convenience. Warm Southwestern touches, including a kiva-style fireplace, tile flooring, and exposed ceiling beams, add charm and character throughout. Resort-style amenities include a heated pool, spa, and fitness studio. The Embarcadero is close to the area's best shopping, dining, and recreation, offering convenience right at your doorstep. A community walking trail connects directly to the 4.5-mile historical Juan Bautista de Anza Trail, with access to the Santa Cruz River, connecting the Village of Tubac to the north, and the Tumacacori Mission to the south, creating an exceptional opportunity for nature lovers, hikers, birders, and history enthusiasts. A rare blend of views, space, and premier positioning, this Embarcadero townhome is the perfect place to savor the Tubac lifestyle.

11. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $260,000
12. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $185,000
13. 2011-04-05
    soldstatus $138,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Beautifully appointed 3 bdrm townhouse in great location; wonderful opportunity; close to the village of Tubac and the Anza Trail along the Santa Cruz River; community pool and other facilities;

14. 2010-09-22
    listed $138,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Beautifully appointed 3 bdrm townhouse in great location; wonderful opportunity; close to the village of Tubac and the Anza Trail along the Santa Cruz River; community pool and other facilities;

15. 2006-12-05
    soldstatus $334,730

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,465
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,630
• − Management: −$3,630
• − HOA: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $4,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $7,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $295,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $305,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-16 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $315,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-27 Listed $320,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-05 Sold (MLS) $138,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-22 Listed $138,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $334,730 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,465 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.