4471 W Oakman Rd · Harrison, MI 48625

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1958 0.39 ac lot Est $82k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious rooms, forced-air heat, natural gas, and high-speed internet availability. In need of repairs and updates, but loaded with potential for the right buyer. Situated on a large yard with plenty of space to enjoy, this property is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Power is currently off. Sold as-is. Bring your ideas and make it your own!

Key facts

• Large yard
• Forced-air heat
• Natural gas

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• FORCED-AIR HEAT
• NATURAL GAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 0.39 acre (61 ft frontage); Zoned residential; No outbuildings

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Natural gas fuel; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Built in 1958
• Construction: Vinyl siding with vinyl trim; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (approx. 11 x 9; 15 x 11; 11); All bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($863 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.5% in Harrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#471 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.63%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4465 Filter Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	808 (-3%)	3mo	$60,000	$74	87
4949 Filter Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	828 (-0%)	9mo	$108,500	$131	86
4239 Oak Flats Rd	0.23mi	2/1.0	816 (-2%)	8mo	$64,900	$80	79
2301 Fir Trl	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	770 (-8%)	0mo	$59,900	$78	76
4712 Poplar Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	872 (+5%)	3mo	$110,000	$126	76
4375 W Oakman St	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	869 (+4%)	16mo	$87,447	$101	70
4362 Filter Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	4mo	$64,900	$90	67
2195 E Cranberry Lake Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	832 (0%)	12mo	$67,000	$81	67
4447 W Oakman Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	726 (-13%)	15mo	$75,000	$103	65
4374 Filter Rd	0.13mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	11mo	$100,000	$139	63
4846 MaryJo Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	738 (-11%)	12mo	$73,000	$99	49
630 N Bass Lake Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+14%)	10mo	$65,000	$68	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $13,631
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $40,826
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $209/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $370	+0% $354	+5% $338	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $320	+0% $354	+5% $388	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $368	base $354	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $54,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 421-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 152.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$209
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $3,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$852
• After-tax cash flow: $3,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harrison

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #13368

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+22.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-12-09 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-03-19 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-05-14 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-06-15 Listed $19,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-04-29 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-10-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-01 Listed $17,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-25 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · -78.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.