130 Gailey Hill Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$499,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1988 6.00 ac lot Est $565k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 6 private acres in the heart of the Adirondacks, this inviting chalet offers the perfect balance of privacy, comfort, and recreational opportunity. Hidden from the road and surrounded by nature, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting where the road disappears from view and everyday distractions fade away. With selective clearing, there is potential to open views toward Potash Mountain. Inside, the home features 2 main level bedrooms plus a spacious top floor loft that easily functions as a third bedroom, additional sleeping area, or recreation space. The soaring cathedral ceilings and stunning floor-to-ceiling stone masonry chimney create a dramatic focal point in the great room, sh

Key facts

• Outdoor fireplace
• Saltwater hot tub
• Security system

Tags

• SOARING CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• OUTDOOR FIREPLACE
• SALTWATER HOT TUB
• FOUR BAY STORAGE BUILDING
• WHOLE HOUSE BACKUP GENERATOR
• SECURITY SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Heated garage; Detached garage and carport options; Off-street paved parking; Driveway parking; Under-residence and additional storage parking; Total parking for up to 8 vehicles
• Security: Security system and security service; Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Septic system; Generator for electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Walk-out finished basement (heated, interior entry); Below-grade finished area
• Construction: Cedar and wood siding exterior; Shingle (asphalt) roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved driveway; Shed(s); Garage(s); Private, sloped lot with mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms; Loft on the second floor; Basement office
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air oil heating; Central air conditioning; Generator for electric backup
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Paddle fan; Central vacuum; Sliding doors; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry area in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-996 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (45.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $273,920 (45.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $565,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Gailey Hill Rd	0.47mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,560 (-13%)	15mo	$490,000	$314	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $208,702
• Equity at exit: $450,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $664,185
• Equity at exit: $971,196

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,958/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,000

Max offer price $324,004

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $499,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,958 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,203 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,245/yr (+$187/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,958
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,630
• − Management: −$2,630
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$21,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,134
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $499,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,958 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.