13 River St · Keeseville, NY 12944

$24,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1870 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Home situated on . 10 acre with great river views. Home is not habitable. NO ACCESS TO INTERIOR OF HOME. Outside of home viewings only.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; 0.1-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 73.0% vs local median 5.1% in Keeseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,620 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 238.29%
• DSCR: 11.60
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,304
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 River St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,196 (0%)	0mo	$20,500	$17	100
1867 Main St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+3%)	3mo	$132,900	$108	61
9 Smart St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+7%)	11mo	$195,000	$152	60
1817 Main St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	15mo	$106,000	$95	57
43 Kent St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,028 (-14%)	7mo	$180,000	$175	51
1872 Main St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,195 (-0%)	22mo	$212,000	$177	44
1831 Route 9	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,023 (-14%)	1mo	$126,500	$124	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.07×
• Total profit: $84,495
• Equity at exit: $3,727

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.82×
• Total profit: $187,675
• Equity at exit: $2,161

Cash invested: $6,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12944

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $1,390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $24,995

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,407	-5% $1,398	+0% $1,390	+5% $1,381	+10% $1,372
Rent	-10% $1,234	-5% $1,312	+0% $1,390	+5% $1,468	+10% $1,546
Rate	-1.0pp $1,402	-0.5pp $1,396	base $1,390	+0.5pp $1,383	+1.0pp $1,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,249
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $24,995
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $34,995 Active
4. 2015-04-13
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $17,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,154
• After-tax cash flow: $12,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Keeseville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #12604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keeseville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,043

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.79%
• Current HPI: 220.0385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $24,995 ACVMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $34,995 ACVMLS
• 2015-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.