Is 399 Hickory Hills Dr in Pattison, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-596/mo modeled cash flow at a $273,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 399 Hickory Hills Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,993/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.81

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$273,990

399 Hickory Hills Dr · Pattison, TX 77423

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 399 Hickory Hills Drive located in Azalea, a coming soon Brohn Homes community in Pattison! This two-story new construction home's layout blends practicality and warmth with modern finishes like wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas and light brown cabinets with nickel hardware throughout. The heart of the home can be found in the kitchen which includes a center island, sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range, and durable granite countertops. Enjoy an upstairs loft thats perfect for exercise or pursuing your hobbies. Retire to the primary suite where you'll find a walk-in closet, dual vanity, and a semi-private water closet. Other amazing highlights include an upstairs utility closet for a smooth and quick laundry routine, and walk-in closets in the secondary bedrooms. Azalea offers a perfect blend of modern living and small-town charm. With convenient access to Morton Ranch Road, family friendly amenities, and zoning to Royal ISD, this thoughtfully planned community provides comfort, connection, and long-term value.

Key facts

Dining area
Mudroom
Functional layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-596 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (20.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (27.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $199k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,314 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 3.95%
Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
DSCR: 0.63
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $304,990
List price: $273,990
Delta: -11.48%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-2%)	4mo	$343,430	$196	85
312 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (+4%)	1mo	$289,990	$156	79
316 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-8%)	0mo	$269,990	$166	77
321 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (+4%)	3mo	$361,762	$194	75
404 Hickory Hills Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-14%)	2mo	$254,990	$166	72
308 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-13%)	2mo	$269,990	$175	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.5%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-93,162
Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

IRR: -68.1%
Equity multiple: -0.78×
Total profit: $-152,308
Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 40 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 26.7 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $287,490 ($153/sqft)
Median days on market: 79 d
This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +11.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1404
Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,993 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
Insurance: −$127
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
Net cashflow: $-596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,748

Max offer price $218,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-491	+0% $-596	+5% $-702	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-754	-5% $-675	+0% $-596	+5% $-517	+10% $-439
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-519	base $-596	+0.5pp $-675	+1.0pp $-756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,248
Closing costs: $9,150
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available
HOA & community: Member of Azalea Community Association, Inc.Annual association fee of $750Community features include community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerConcrete road access
Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionBrohn Homes builder2-story homeEntry level: First floor common areas and second floor bedroomsFacing direction not specified
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Fence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14x16)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 12x11)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 11x11)
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Granite countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr

Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $273,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $273,990 Active 160 DOM
2026-09-22

pricedays on market $273,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $269,990 Active 158 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $269,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $269,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $269,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $269,990 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $269,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $269,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $269,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $269,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $269,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $269,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $270,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $270,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $270,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $270,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $270,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $270,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $270,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $270,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $270,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $270,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $270,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $270,990 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $270,990 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $270,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $270,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $270,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $270,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $270,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $270,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $270,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $270,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $270,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $270,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $270,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $270,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $270,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $270,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $270,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-04

pricedays on market $270,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $267,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $267,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $267,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $267,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $267,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $267,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $267,990 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,918
− Mortgage interest: −$17,084
− Property taxes: −$4,575
− Insurance: −$1,525
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
− Management: −$1,913
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$8,872
Taxable loss: −$12,722

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,053
After-tax cash flow: $-4,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,910–$26,730 screening

This two-story home by Brohn Homes is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a spacious kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and attractive landscaping. The highest-ROI updates include painting, landscaping, new flooring, and modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pattison

Score: 63/100
State rank: #876
US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
City population: 18,767
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+7.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-02 Price Changed $267,990 Zillow
2026-04-28 Price Changed $267,990 HARMLS
2026-04-16 Price Changed $258,990 Zillow
2026-04-16 Listed $258,990 HARMLS
2026-04-07 Listed $249,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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