405 Capitol St · Gilmer, TX 75644

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot Est $131k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3/1/ on . 4781 Acres in town! Cute house. Lots of fruit trees! Close to everything. Fenced in back yard offering space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities. Has a storage building in the back yard. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize, or seeking an investment opportunity, this property offers both functionality and potential. Come see!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Fenced in back yard
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heating; Window cooling units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Storage included
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,500 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,104
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 W Redbud St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (+6%)	5mo	$139,500	$136	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $64,283
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $194,383
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,637/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $111,975

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-65	+0% $-101	+5% $-138	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-140	+0% $-101	+5% $-63	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-68	base $-101	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	45d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 367-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,637
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $-374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilmer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $129,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,637 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.