27111 N Pl · Ocean Park, WA 98640

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1940 10,019 sqft lot $233/sqft · 10% below area Est $387k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great option with this west side stick built close to the beach and close to town. Enjoy the Clean lines & a great floor plan of the home and a large and level fenced back yard. A daily walk to the ocean would be no problem, Just head west a few blocks! Be pleased w kitchen, walk in pantry, laundry room, covered porch up front and a deck out back to enjoy. Ocean Park downtown area for shopping & conveniences is just a few blocks away. Make it your full time residence, or enjoy it as your beach get-a-way. Settle into the beauty of the Pacific Northwest & enjoy not only your neighborhood in Ocean Park, but adjacent communities & the array of activities this area has

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Laundry room
• Deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HUGE FENCED BACK YARD
• WALK IN PANTRY
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $350k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,000 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,442
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -9.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27106 K Pl	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,421 (-5%)	4mo	$390,000	$274	76
1210 Bay Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-1%)	13mo	$553,700	$372	62
1401 264th Pl	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,710 (+14%)	11mo	$380,000	$222	44
1403 282nd St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+11%)	18mo	$255,500	$154	43
28515 R Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+14%)	3mo	$515,000	$300	41
1306 Bay Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+10%)	17mo	$570,000	$345	38
2515 270th	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+14%)	15mo	$375,000	$220	38
2708 272nd St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,642 (+10%)	22mo	$375,000	$228	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,750
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-67,050
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98640

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,758

Max offer price $327,867

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-26	+0% $-125	+5% $-224	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-227	+0% $-125	+5% $-22	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-36	base $-125	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27906 U St Ocean Park, WA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,600	$1.81	44d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Active
2. 2026-03-29
   price $349,900
3. 2026-02-07
   price $384,800
4. 2025-10-14
   listed $399,800 Active
5. 2012-04-23
   historical
6. 2012-04-17
   soldstatus $136,000 Sold
7. 2012-03-25
   status Pending
8. 2012-03-14
   status Pending Inspection
9. 2012-03-07
   listed $136,000 Active
10. 2006-06-05
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,429 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,053/yr (+$88/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥74°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$2,376
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Park, WA
• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.15%
• Current HPI: 222.8758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+399.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $349,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $384,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $399,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-23 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-17 Sold (MLS) $136,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-07 Listed $136,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,376 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.