3907 Tournament · Palmdale, CA 93551

$685,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2003 6,953 sqft lot Est $702k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful West Palmdale home, located in the prestigious Rancho Vista Golf Course community, offers 3,146 square feet of refined living space with 5 bedrooms & 4 bathrooms, including a full bedroom & bathroom downstairs. The front of the home is professionally landscaped & truly breathtaking, featuring a cascading river, mature pine trees, and a charming bridge that leads to the front entry an exceptionally serene and inviting setting. The tandem 3-car garage is fully finished & includes an insulated garage door. Inside, tile flooring flows throughout the entire downstairs, beginning in the formal living area & continuing into the elegant formal dining room, which is separated from the kitchen by a butler's pantry complete with a built-in bar & coffee station. The kitchen is a chef's dream, offering two granite center islands, granite countertops throughout, abundant cabinetry, a walk-in pantry, & an open layout that connects seamlessly to the spacious family room with a cozy fireplace. A separate flex space off the kitchen & family room features sliding glass doors leading to the backyard, making it ideal for a game room, playroom, or additional living area. The downstairs bedroom & full bath function as a private suite, & an additional guest bathroom is conveniently located on the main level. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite showcases beautiful views of the Valley lights, while the primary bath includes a soaking tub, separate shower, & dual sinks. Three additional bedrooms are generously sized, and the hallway offers a built-in desk area perfect for work or homework. The large upstairs laundry room includes a sink for added convenience. The backyard is a peaceful retreat with two unique patio areas crafted from wood imported from a burn site in New Mexico, creating a rustic & tranquil atmosphere ideal for entertaining or relaxation. The yard also includes 240V wiring for a spa, & the home is equipped with a whole-house fan, or relaxation.

Key facts

• Mature pine trees
• Cascading river
• Butler's pantry

Tags

• PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED
• CASCADING RIVER
• MATURE PINE TREES
• CHARMING BRIDGE
• TILE FLOORING
• BUTLER'S PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Negotiable home warranty program (HPP); Personal property included: exterior lighting and fireplace screen/equipment; No ADU on property
• HOA & community: No HOA services included (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tandem garage with 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Internet available
• Home design: Traditional-style home; 2 stories
• Construction: Stucco and wood construction; Tile roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built on a 6,969.6 sq. ft. lot
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Two pergola-covered slab patios; Automatic sprinklers front and rear with drip system; Street lights, sidewalks, and curbs present; Rectangular lot shape; Paved public streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Gas range and gas oven; Garbage disposal; Owned water purifier (reverse osmosis/water filter)
• Bedrooms: Includes a downstairs bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (upgraded — two units); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Formal dining area; Dining area in kitchen; Separate dining area; Gas fireplace in family room; Guest quarters/maid's room; Family room; Downstairs bedroom; Rear lawn
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry room with sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $685k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $658k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $658k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,585/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($675k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $685k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $658,451 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $701,558
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4011 Prestwick Ln	0.20mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,219 (+2%)	1mo	$719,000	$223	77
3721 Club Rancho Dr	0.33mi	5/4.0	3,032 (-4%)	2mo	$687,000	$227	77
40637 Pinina Ct	0.48mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,341 (+6%)	1mo	$810,870	$243	61
40333 Preston Rd	0.64mi	5/3.0	3,256 (+4%)	2mo	$650,000	$200	58
3642 Club Rancho	0.36mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,482 (+11%)	2mo	$664,870	$191	58
3445 W Avenue N3	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,320 (+6%)	7mo	$900,000	$271	49
40247 Preston Rd	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,883 (-8%)	1mo	$729,750	$253	48
40741 Oakmont Ct	0.58mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,482 (+11%)	2mo	$750,000	$215	48
40271 Crestridge	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,883 (-8%)	5mo	$590,000	$205	45
40609 Saddle Brook Ct	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-9%)	3mo	$690,000	$242	42
3201 Club Rancho	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-9%)	2mo	$630,000	$221	40
41002 Flagstone St	0.67mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,857 (-9%)	6mo	$625,000	$219	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-70,435
• Equity at exit: $102,136

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-22,119
• Equity at exit: $59,226

Cash invested: $191,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax from tax record: −$613 /mo · $7,357/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,383
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,684

Max offer price $685,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,250
• Closing costs: $20,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4138 Club Vista Dr Palmdale, CA	5.0	4.0	3146	$7,500	$2.38	1d	1	0.38mi
3423 Racquet Ln Palmdale, CA	5.0	3.0	2944	$7,500	$2.55	1d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $685,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $685,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $685,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $685,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $685,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $685,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $685,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $685,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $685,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $685,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $685,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $685,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    listing id $685,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 679-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $685,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,357 · $613/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,357 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,371
• − Property taxes: −$7,357
• − Insurance: −$3,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,321
• − Management: −$6,321
• − Depreciation: −$19,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $9,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+87.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $685,000 AVMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listed $685,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-02 Sold (MLS) $380,000 AVMLS
• 2015-04-13 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-04-13 Listed $379,900 AVMLS
• 2015-03-02 Listed $399,900 AVMLS
• 2008-12-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $330,000 AVMLS
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $330,000 CRMLS
• 2008-11-05 Listed $329,900 CRMLS
• 2008-09-10 Listed $329,900 AVMLS
• 2008-07-15 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2008-03-13 Listed $365,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,357 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.