13734 Willie Melton Blvd · Kendleton, TX 77451

$99,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,059 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1974 8,089 sqft lot $94/sqft · 31% below area Est $146k · 31% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

NO HOA!!! Close enough to the city but far enough to enjoy the quietness of the country. This is the perfect 3 bedroom/2 bath home on a large lot. Great for investors or first time home buyers that can add a little TLC! Dont miss this great opportunity!

Key facts

• 8,089 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (one level); Built in 1974; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (three): two approximately 11x11, one approximately 10x10
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.34%
• DSCR: 4.71
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,831
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -31.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13726 Willie Melton Blvd	0.02mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,048 (-1%)	9mo	$145,000	$138	83
13718 Willie Melton Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,167 (+10%)	11mo	$138,000	$118	63
14119 Willie Melton Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,001 (-6%)	11mo	$215,000	$215	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $147,600
• Equity at exit: $57,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.5%
• Equity multiple: 13.11×
• Total profit: $339,067
• Equity at exit: $99,403

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77451

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,577/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13218 HP Johnson St Unit A Kendleton, TX	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,450	$2.53	1d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $99,999 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,999 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,999 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    historical
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $99,999 Active 256-char remark
17. 2026-04-14
    price $99,999
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,577
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $23,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,565
• After-tax cash flow: $17,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kendleton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 510

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 47% Two or more races 29%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Current HPI: 153.2946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $125,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,577 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.