Victory Plan · Grovetown, GA 30813

$369,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Victory is a 3,216 square foot, two-story plan from Declaration Homes by Ivey Homes. With five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, a two-car garage, this is the plan for families who want it all. A two-story foyer makes an immediate impression, opening into an expansive family room with fireplace that sets the tone for the entire home. The open-concept main level connects the kitchen and breakfast room in a layout built for both busy mornings and relaxed evenings, while a flex room gives you the freedom to create a dedicated office, formal dining room, or playroom. A main-level bedroom with a full bath is a rare and practical touch, perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, the primary suite is the crown jewel - a generously sized retreat with a large walk-in closet and private bath. Four additional bedrooms, a conveniently placed laundry, and a sprawling bonus room round out a second floor that has an answer for every need. A front porch and optional covered porch out back complete the picture. The Victory is the largest plan in the Declaration lineup, and it earns the name.

Key facts

• Main level bedroom
• Private bath
• Flex room

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• FLEX ROOM
• MAIN LEVEL BEDROOM
• PRIVATE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $369,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $432,368.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-769 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 724 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,845 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,368
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -14.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Prominence Dr Unit Tp29	0.19mi	5/4.0	3,410 (+6%)	8mo	$499,900	$147	71
5511 Sweetwater Dr Unit Tp61	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,889 (-10%)	3mo	$445,000	$154	70
264 Prominence Dr Unit Tp55	0.22mi	5/4.0	2,916 (-9%)	1mo	$439,900	$151	69
344 Granard St	0.42mi	5/4.0	3,314 (+3%)	8mo	$485,000	$146	65
1117 Southall Ln #88	0.47mi	5/4.0	3,324 (+3%)	6mo	$489,900	$147	63
328 Granard St	0.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,010 (-6%)	2mo	$435,000	$145	58
8748 Crenshaw Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0	3,455 (+7%)	0mo	$394,000	$114	56
1514 Old Spruce Ln	0.73mi	5/3.0	3,407 (+6%)	3mo	$380,000	$112	54
855 Williford Run Drive Dr	0.73mi	5/3.0	3,013 (-6%)	3mo	$364,000	$121	53
2623 Kirby Ave	0.63mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,494 (+9%)	6mo	$429,000	$123	46
1109 Southall Ln #85	0.52mi	5/4.0	3,696 (+15%)	6mo	$534,900	$145	42
3006 Earlham Way	0.64mi	5/4.0	3,696 (+15%)	7mo	$519,000	$140	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-124,152
• Equity at exit: $64,468

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-191,326
• Equity at exit: $37,383

Cash invested: $121,063 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30813

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,267
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$540 /mo · $6,486/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,782

Max offer price $321,046

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-471	-5% $-620	+0% $-769	+5% $-919	+10% $-1,068
Rent	-10% $-991	-5% $-880	+0% $-769	+5% $-658	+10% $-547
Rate	-1.0pp $-552	-0.5pp $-659	base $-769	+0.5pp $-881	+1.0pp $-995

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,092
• Closing costs: $12,971
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 AVIGNON Unit TP77 Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.5	2460	$2,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.11mi
239 Prominence Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	3410	$2,950	$0.87	44d	1	0.12mi
239 Prominence Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	3410	$2,950	$0.87	24d	1	0.12mi
306 AVIGNON Unit TP77 Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.5	2460	$2,800	$1.14	24d	1	0.12mi
707 Navan Ln Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2875	$2,450	$0.85	14d	1	0.35mi
705 Navan Ln Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	2798	$2,495	$0.89	14d	1	0.36mi
2467 Newbury Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2236	$2,300	$1.03	14d	1	0.68mi
918 Williford Run Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,195	$1.00	14d	1	0.76mi
835 Williford Run Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	2889	$2,495	$0.86	14d	1	0.83mi
2612 Waites Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	2754	$2,295	$0.83	44d	1	0.84mi
1721 Dunmore Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,200	$1.04	14d	1	0.85mi
327 Clearwater Ln Grovetown, GA	5.0	4.0	3956	$3,500	$0.88	14d	1	0.87mi
8647 Crenshaw Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.5	3473	$2,800	$0.81	24d	1	0.90mi
8647 Crenshaw Dr Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.5	3473	$2,800	$0.81	44d	1	0.90mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	0.91mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	24d	1	0.91mi
307 Big Flint Ln Grovetown, GA	5.0	4.5	3496	$2,500	$0.72	44d	1	1.32mi
1203 Sambar Cir Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.5	2846	$2,750	$0.97	14d	1	1.39mi
479 Sebastian Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2517	$2,200	$0.87	44d	1	1.41mi
1241 Sambar Cir Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	3209	$2,400	$0.75	44d	1	1.45mi
1240 Sambar Cir Grovetown, GA	5.0	3.0	2648	$2,300	$0.87	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $369,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $369,900 Active 1108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    The Victory is a 3,216 square foot, two-story plan from Declaration Homes by Ivey Homes. With five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, a two-car garage, this is the plan for families who want it all. A two-story foyer makes an immediate impression, opening into an expansive family room with fireplace that sets the tone for the entire home. The open-concept main level connects the kitchen and breakfast room in a layout built for both busy mornings and relaxed evenings, while a flex room gives you the freedom to create a dedicated office, formal dining room, or playroom. A main-level bedroom with a full bath is a rare and practical touch, perfect for guests or multigenerational living. Upstairs, the primary suite is the crown jewel - a generously sized retreat with a large walk-in closet and private bath. Four additional bedrooms, a conveniently placed laundry, and a sprawling bonus room round out a second floor that has an answer for every need. A front porch and optional covered porch out back complete the picture. The Victory is the largest plan in the Declaration lineup, and it earns the name.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,219
• − Property taxes: −$6,486
• − Insurance: −$2,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − Depreciation: −$12,578
• Taxable loss: −$17,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Grovetown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #5433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 154,184 people
• City population: 52,466
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 52,466
• Household income: $86,923
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.24%
• Current HPI: 233.821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $369,900 Zillow