864 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 · Naples Park, FL 34108

$450,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Condo public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1988 $729/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT SEASONAL RENTAL - $3500 MONTH - 1 MILE TO BEACH - LOWEST HOA'S IN THE AREA. This BEAUTIFUL CONDO is a Spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath second floor residence boasting with a vaulted ceiling open floor plan, and tile flooring throughout which also consists of Plantation shutters, and a private screened lanai with a built-in Jen-Pro gas grill! A/C, refrigerator, stove, washer and dryer, hurricane shutters all new in 2009! The Lovely gated community with lush landscaping, sparkling pool, covered tiki area and plenty of room for sunning. Spectacular location West of 41! Only steps to the NEW "LA Fitness Center" in the Pavilion Shopping center along with dining & shopping, movie theater with less than a mile to the beautiful sandy Vanderbilt Beach & the brand new Mercato. Tennis courts and shuffle board just across the street. Small pets are allowed with approval. Owner is eager to sell NOW. VERY CLEAN. NEVER EVER BEEN LIVED IN. Make offer.

Key facts

• Near mercato
• Updated cabinetry
• $729 HOA

Tags

• 20 NEW PICKLE BALL COURTS
• NEAR MERCATO
• NEAR PAVILION SHOPPING CENTER
• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• UPDATED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees: $8,748; Total one-time fees: $150
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with on-site management; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers internet/WiFi, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, management, repairs, reserves, security, street lights, and street maintenance; Community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, community room, BBQ/picnic area, and streetlights; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned covered parking space; Detached 1-car carport; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated community; Community security services covered by HOA
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1-3 stories); Built in 1988; Rear exposure faces east; Unit 202 in Pavilion Club development
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Fenced; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung and sliding windows; Electric shutters; Gated community; Landscaped area view; Paved road access; Deeded property with restrictions (No RV, No Truck)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/freezer; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Open porch/lanai; Turnkey furnished; 1 ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,940/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $450k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-24,785
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $126,581
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34108

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,430/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$729
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,509

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
840 Gulf Pavilion Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	23d	1	0.08mi
822 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$6,500	$5.10	23d	1	0.16mi
815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$3,500	$2.97	23d	1	0.17mi
9123 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$14,000	$11.05	14d	6	0.25mi
749 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1417	$3,750	$2.65	14d	1	0.28mi
9115 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1489	$13,000	$8.73	23d	4	0.31mi
791 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$9,000	$6.43	23d	1	0.34mi
878 Meadowland Dr Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1459	$6,500	$4.46	14d	1	0.35mi
878 Meadowland Dr Unit G Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	14d	1	0.35mi
829 Reef Point Cir Unit 46 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	23d	1	0.35mi
8385 Excalibur Cir Unit G3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$10,000	$7.24	23d	1	0.37mi
719 Reef Point Cir #13 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$8,000	$5.96	23d	1	0.37mi
845 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$4,200	$3.09	23d	1	0.37mi
857 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	23d	1	0.39mi
714 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$8,500	$6.31	14d	1	0.39mi
500 Lambiance Cir Unit 5-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$8,000	$5.93	23d	1	0.40mi
8405 Excalibur Cir Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$9,000	$6.51	23d	1	0.41mi
757 95th Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	23d	1	0.43mi
833 Meadowland Dr Unit 14-3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1360	$5,500	$4.04	14d	1	0.44mi
400 L Ambiance Cir #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$6,500	$4.82	14d	1	0.44mi
8415 Excalibur Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1522	$9,750	$6.40	23d	1	0.44mi
820 Meadowland Dr Unit D Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$5,500	$3.84	14d	1	0.48mi
717 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	23d	1	0.49mi
100 Lambiance Cir Unit 1-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$8,800	$6.34	23d	1	0.49mi
200 L Ambiance Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1395	$8,500	$6.09	14d	1	0.50mi
661 Windsurf Ln Unit A-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,500	$5.56	14d	1	0.51mi
655 Windsurf Ln Unit 1546357P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,376	$2.34	14d	1	0.51mi
649 Beachwalk Cir Unit C101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	14d	1	0.53mi
650 93rd Ave N Unit 1073498P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,136	$3.56	14d	1	0.54mi
81 Emerald Woods Dr Unit M8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1133	$4,200	$3.71	23d	1	0.54mi
81 Emerald Woods Dr Unit M8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1133	$4,200	$3.71	13d	1	0.54mi
671 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$6,800	$4.64	23d	1	0.55mi
790 Meadowland Dr Unit 29-2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$6,000	$4.19	14d	1	0.55mi
800 Meadowland Dr Unit N Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$5,500	$3.84	21d	1	0.56mi
800 Meadowland Dr Unit H Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$2,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.56mi
643 Beachwalk Cir Unit D-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,950	$4.41	14d	1	0.57mi
522 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$6,000	$4.42	23d	1	0.59mi
549 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	23d	1	0.61mi
631 Beachwalk Cir Unit F204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	14d	1	0.63mi
645 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$2,750	$2.87	14d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $729 · $8,748/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-02-07
    listed $450,000 Active
16. 2015-05-05
    soldstatus $185,000
17. 2012-11-07
    soldstatus $185,000
18. 2012-11-05
    soldstatus $185,000 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    GREAT SEASONAL RENTAL - $3500 MONTH - 1 MILE TO BEACH - LOWEST HOA'S IN THE AREA. This BEAUTIFUL CONDO is a Spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath second floor residence boasting with a vaulted ceiling open floor plan, and tile flooring throughout which also consists of Plantation shutters, and a private screened lanai with a built-in Jen-Pro gas grill! A/C, refrigerator, stove, washer and dryer, hurricane shutters all new in 2009! The Lovely gated community with lush landscaping, sparkling pool, covered tiki area and plenty of room for sunning. Spectacular location West of 41! Only steps to the NEW "LA Fitness Center" in the Pavilion Shopping center along with dining & shopping, movie theater with less than a mile to the beautiful sandy Vanderbilt Beach & the brand new Mercato. Tennis courts and shuffle board just across the street. Small pets are allowed with approval. Owner is eager to sell NOW. VERY CLEAN. NEVER EVER BEEN LIVED IN. Make offer.

19. 2012-06-11
    listed $199,899 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    GREAT SEASONAL RENTAL - $3500 MONTH - 1 MILE TO BEACH - LOWEST HOA'S IN THE AREA. This BEAUTIFUL CONDO is a Spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath second floor residence boasting with a vaulted ceiling open floor plan, and tile flooring throughout which also consists of Plantation shutters, and a private screened lanai with a built-in Jen-Pro gas grill! A/C, refrigerator, stove, washer and dryer, hurricane shutters all new in 2009! The Lovely gated community with lush landscaping, sparkling pool, covered tiki area and plenty of room for sunning. Spectacular location West of 41! Only steps to the NEW "LA Fitness Center" in the Pavilion Shopping center along with dining & shopping, movie theater with less than a mile to the beautiful sandy Vanderbilt Beach & the brand new Mercato. Tennis courts and shuffle board just across the street. Small pets are allowed with approval. Owner is eager to sell NOW. VERY CLEAN. NEVER EVER BEEN LIVED IN. Make offer.

20. 2011-08-17
    listed $237,000
21. 2011-06-30
    historical
22. 2010-07-12
    listed $279,000
23. 1988-10-01
    soldstatus $93,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$305/yr (+$25/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$3,430
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,742
• − Management: −$4,742
• − HOA: −$8,748
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $4,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Park

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #696
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,237
• Household income: $119,212
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -587.97%
• Current HPI: 275.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.74%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+381.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $450,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-05 Sold (MLS) $185,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2012-06-11 Listed $199,899 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-08-17 Listed $237,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2010-07-12 Listed $279,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1988-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,430 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.