1586 W Gainsboro Ln · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$291,362

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · Land · 135 Days on market

Built 2025 10,005 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This high & dry building site is located in developing area of Citrus Springs. No homes on this portion of the street yet. Citrus Springs offers community center, 2 18 hole golf courses, library, churches, schools, biking/hiking trails. Close to Gulf and Ocala. Only 1 1/2 hours to Tampa or Orlando. Eleven other building sites available in the same community. Owner financing available.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Tall ceilings
• Large island

Tags

• TALL CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing; Completed/new construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; In-wall pest system; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $291k implies a 7184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,663 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,965
• Equity at exit: $43,443

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-100,929
• Equity at exit: $25,192

Cash invested: $81,581 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,528
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,370/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,549

Max offer price $228,243

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-336	+0% $-436	+5% $-537	+10% $-638
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-515	+0% $-436	+5% $-357	+10% $-278
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-362	base $-436	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,840
• Closing costs: $8,741
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7175 N Varsity Ave Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,795	$1.26	22d	1	0.43mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	22d	1	0.54mi
1912 W Quaker Ln Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.62mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	22d	1	0.77mi
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	22d	1	0.83mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	22d	1	0.89mi
1482 W Manchester Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,695	$1.10	22d	1	0.91mi
6251 W Whispering Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,815	$1.12	22d	1	0.95mi
669 W Homeway Loop Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	22d	1	1.00mi
2117 W Swanson Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	22d	1	1.05mi
8267 N Santos Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.09mi
7047 N Lime Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	22d	1	1.30mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	22d	1	1.33mi
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	22d	1	1.34mi
8006 N Voyager Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,899	$1.16	22d	1	1.45mi
2195 W Tall Oaks Dr Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,200	$1.30	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $291,362 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $291,362 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,362 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,362 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,362 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,362 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $291,362 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,362 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,362 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $291,362 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,362 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $291,362 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $291,362 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $291,362 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $291,362 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $291,362
17. 2026-02-06
    listed $316,103 Active
18. 2009-08-27
    soldstatus $4,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    This high & dry building site is located in developing area of Citrus Springs. No homes on this portion of the street yet. Citrus Springs offers community center, 2 18 hole golf courses, library, churches, schools, biking/hiking trails. Close to Gulf and Ocala. Only 1 1/2 hours to Tampa or Orlando. Eleven other building sites available in the same community. Owner financing available.

19. 2009-08-27
    soldstatus $32,000

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    This high & dry building site is located in developing area of Citrus Springs. No homes on this portion of the street yet. Citrus Springs offers community center, 2 18 hole golf courses, library, churches, schools, biking/hiking trails. Close to Gulf and Ocala. Only 1 1/2 hours to Tampa or Orlando. Eleven other building sites available in the same community. Owner financing available.

20. 2007-08-23
    listed $5,999 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    This high & dry building site is located in developing area of Citrus Springs. No homes on this portion of the street yet. Citrus Springs offers community center, 2 18 hole golf courses, library, churches, schools, biking/hiking trails. Close to Gulf and Ocala. Only 1 1/2 hours to Tampa or Orlando. Eleven other building sites available in the same community. Owner financing available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,321
• − Property taxes: −$4,370
• − Insurance: −$1,457
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$8,476
• Taxable loss: −$10,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4756.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $291,362 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $316,103 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-27 Sold (MLS) $4,000 RACC
• 2007-08-23 Listed $5,999 RACC

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $182 · +43.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.