4509 Oak St · Highland City, FL 33813

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1965 8,499 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. This beautifully updated South Lakeland home offers the perfect blend of modern improvements, functional outdoor space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled on a spacious lot with open views behind the property, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence has been thoughtfully refreshed throughout and is move-in ready. From the moment you arrive, the fresh exterior paint, updated landscaping, covered carport, and mature oak trees create inviting curb appeal with a charming country feel while still being close to everything South Lakeland has to offer. Inside, the bright and functional layout features a welcoming living area that flows seamlessly into the dining sp

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Covered carport
• Updated landscaping

Tags

• UPDATED LANDSCAPING
• COVERED CARPORT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-2
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing; Completed condition; Homestead eligible
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.2 acres
• Exterior features: Porch; Rear screened porch; Mature landscaping; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#262 in FL, #4,195 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $240k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,138 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-35,260
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-32,606
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,152/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $163	+0% $95	+5% $27	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $17	+0% $95	+5% $172	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $156	base $95	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5822 Charlton Dr Unit 5822 5824 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	5d	1	0.69mi
3972 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1011	$1,740	$1.72	5d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $240,000 Active
2. 2015-09-29
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,152
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $1,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Highland City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #4195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 14,836
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,152 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.