400 Capitan · Uvalde, TX 78801

$88,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2003 5,575 sqft lot Est $169k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom two bath on a corner lot. Central heating and air conditioning. Located near to local schools and downtown.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Air conditioning
• Local schools

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CENTRAL HEATING
• AIR CONDITIONING
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.2% in Uvalde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#187 in TX, #4,844 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Uvalde CISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #760 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Uvalde H S (math 15% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 1,129 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 17 units permitted in Uvalde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Uvalde County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,680 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.71%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,640
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
723 W Leona	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-1%)	2mo	$219,000	$179	77
470 N Crisp St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+4%)	5mo	$219,000	$170	76
314 Florence St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	23mo	$149,000	$119	74
313 Bohme	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,339 (+8%)	1mo	$160,000	$119	72
637 Roach St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+4%)	11mo	$209,999	$163	69
701 FT Clark Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-11%)	9mo	$149,900	$136	57
238 W Calera St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-1%)	12mo	$95,000	$77	50
122 Fenley St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-4%)	24mo	$129,000	$109	39
137 W Garden St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,386 (+12%)	1mo	$145,000	$105	37
412 W Garden	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (-8%)	22mo	$175,000	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $12,907
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $46,441
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78801

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,448/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $450	+0% $425	+5% $400	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $369	+0% $425	+5% $482	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $448	base $425	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Bohme St Uvalde, TX	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,500	$1.11	44d	1	0.19mi
113 S Claudia St Uvalde, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $88,000 New
3. 1987-01-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$2,448
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $4,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$962
• After-tax cash flow: $4,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Uvalde CISD
• NCES district ID: 4843720
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,054
• Composite: 18.63/100
• National rank: #8897
• State rank: #760 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uvalde

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #4844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uvalde, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,487

Population outlook (Uvalde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,865 people
• By 2030: 29,675 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 31,256 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 32,790 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 37,013 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 37,306 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% White 20% Two or more races 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Uvalde

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.9% · R 66.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+20.3 2016: R+10.8 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.65%
• Current HPI: 152.7777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-25 Listed $88,000 LERA
• 1987-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,448 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.