1202 Green Ave · Wilson, TX 79381

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Wilson! Just 20 minutes from Lubbock - you'll love the feel of small town life while not being too far from all the restaurants and shopping that you need. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this charming property offers modern updates and cozy comfort. Inside, you'll find stylish new vinyl flooring throughout and an updated kitchen designed for both functionality and everyday living. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms, two full baths, and a 1-car garage for added convenience. Outside, enjoy the extra storage provided by the storage shed, plus the added bonus of a cellar for additional space and peace

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Cellar
• Storage shed

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• VINYL FLOORING
• STORAGE SHED
• CELLAR
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Paved road access
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area: 1,799 above-grade finished (reported)
• Exterior features: Storage; Fenced backyard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing gas range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,132 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Wilson ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,024 of 1,141 in TX (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.36%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $68,983
• Equity at exit: $75,755

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $177,458
• Equity at exit: $117,979

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $839	-5% $792	+0% $745	+5% $699	+10% $652
Rent	-10% $538	-5% $642	+0% $745	+5% $849	+10% $953
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $787	base $745	+0.5pp $703	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2025-08-12
    price $175,000
17. 2022-06-14
    price $105,000
18. 2022-06-02
    price $110,000
19. 2022-05-13
    listed $114,900 Active
20. 2022-03-31
    listed $119,000
21. 2019-06-24
    soldstatus
22. 2018-08-29
    listed $73,000
23. 2007-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,647
• After-tax cash flow: $7,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845990
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $37,801
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12290
• State rank: #1024 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1132
• US rank: #20012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+126.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Price Changed $105,000 LARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Price Changed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2022-05-13 Listed $114,900 LARMLS
• 2022-03-31 Listed $119,000 LARMLS
• 2019-06-24 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Listed $73,000 LARMLS
• 2007-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,738 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.