20 Granite Rd #20 · Guilford, CT 06437

$250,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 874 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 1978 $427/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT STARTER HOME" Lovely unit that offers large living room with fireplace and sliders to a private deck. The bedroom offers great closet space. One car garage is included with unit. City water is included in association fee and in ground pool.

Key facts

• Private deck
• In-unit laundry
• New roof

Tags

• SECOND-FLOOR RANCH UNIT
• PRIVATE DECK
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• NEW ROOF
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is one of 54 in the complex
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee ($427) — includes grounds maintenance, trash pickup, snow removal, heat, hot water, property management, pool service, road maintenance and insurance; Association amenities include guest parking and pool; Professional off-site property management; Pet restrictions (no dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Shared septic
• Home design: Condominium in a complex (Walden Three); Condo unit
• Construction: Frame construction; Tan exterior color
• Exterior features: Vinyl and wood siding; Lightly wooded, treed lot; In-ground swimming pool with pool house and safety fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: One bedroom (unit on second floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heat (oil); Wall cooling unit; Oil hot water (domestic), above-ground fuel tank
• Interior features: Cable available; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in closet in kitchen on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (15.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Guilford School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #19 of 153 in CT (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilford High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 1,048 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 109% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $250k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,596 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-57,036
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-69,897
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06437

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $211,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-179	+0% $-265	+5% $-352	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-366	+0% $-265	+5% $-165	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-202	base $-265	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1162 Moose Hill Rd Guilford, CT	2.0	1.0	960	$2,550	$2.66	4d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $427 · $5,124/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 512-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $250,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$2,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford School District
• NCES district ID: 0901800
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $97,539
• Composite: 63.46/100
• National rank: #614
• State rank: #19 of 153 in CT

Livability — Guilford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,037

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.02%
• Current HPI: 179.6376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+108.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Coming Soon $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $122,550 Smart MLS
• 2020-06-17 Listed $119,900 Smart MLS
• 2020-01-31 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2020-01-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2019-12-05 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2019-10-01 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2019-07-02 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2019-06-18 Listed $119,900 Smart MLS