3225 Stanley Rd · Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,795,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,643 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 2023 1.18 ac lot $493/sqft · 30% below area Est $2581k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An exceptionally rare opportunity to own a recently constructed luxury home in The Oasis at Mattituck, a coveted cul-de-sac community of 25 estate residences with no HOA fees. Set on over an acre of land, this pristine home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, a 20 x 40 heated saltwater pool, and a spacious, customizable lower level with 3 egress windows and a private outside entrance. The pewter Hardie plank exterior paired with black Pella lifestyle windows establishes a clean, modern aesthetic that carries seamlessly throughout the home. Interior finishes are equally refined, featuring a high-end appliance package, a generous center island, premium Silestone countertops, wide-plank white oak flooring, imported Italian tile baths, a fully customizable smart home platform, and a whole-house fresh-air ventilation and humidity-control system. Private Breakwater Beach and the Long Island Sound are just a short stroll away, offering direct access to the Mattituck Inlet for boating enthusiasts. Offered fully furnished with tasteful, immaculate furnishings for the ultimate in turnkey convenience, this home is comparably priced to older properties in the area while delivering something altogether new, effortless, and enduring. Whether as a personal retreat, a powerful income-producing asset, or both, this is North Fork luxury at its most compelling and a veritable no-brainer.

Key facts

• 1.18 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Tags

• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• CUSTOMIZABLE LOWER LEVEL
• PRIVATE OUTSIDE ENTRANCE
• HIGH-END APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• GENEROUS CENTER ISLAND
• PREMIUM SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $602 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.54M (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $1.79M implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,539,347 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,580,702
• List price: $1,795,000
• Delta: -30.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 Zena Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5	3,643 (0%)	7mo	$1,500,000	$412	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-252,816
• Equity at exit: $267,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-171,949
• Equity at exit: $155,199

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax from tax record: −$1,398 /mo · $16,774/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,233
• Net cashflow: $602

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,632

Max offer price $1,795,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Jackson Lndg Mattituck, NY	5.0	5.5	4221	$20,000	$4.74	24d	1	0.51mi
2415 Cox Neck Rd Mattituck, NY	5.0	3.5	2500	$15,000	$6.00	43d	1	0.56mi
1600 Westview Dr Mattituck, NY	3.0	3.0	3192	$5,500	$1.72	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $1,795,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,835,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,835,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,835,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,835,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,835,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,835,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,835,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $1,835,000 1393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1393 chars)

    An exceptionally rare opportunity to own a recently constructed luxury home in The Oasis at Mattituck, a coveted cul-de-sac community of 25 estate residences with no HOA fees. Set on over an acre of land, this pristine home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, a 20 x 40 heated saltwater pool, and a spacious, customizable lower level with 3 egress windows and a private outside entrance. The pewter Hardie plank exterior paired with black Pella lifestyle windows establishes a clean, modern aesthetic that carries seamlessly throughout the home. Interior finishes are equally refined, featuring a high-end appliance package, a generous center island, premium Silestone countertops, wide-plank white oak flooring, imported Italian tile baths, a fully customizable smart home platform, and a whole-house fresh-air ventilation and humidity-control system. Private Breakwater Beach and the Long Island Sound are just a short stroll away, offering direct access to the Mattituck Inlet for boating enthusiasts. Offered fully furnished with tasteful, immaculate furnishings for the ultimate in turnkey convenience, this home is comparably priced to older properties in the area while delivering something altogether new, effortless, and enduring. Whether as a personal retreat, a powerful income-producing asset, or both, this is North Fork luxury at its most compelling and a veritable no-brainer.

15. 2026-03-26
    listed $1,895,000 Active 1393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1393 chars)

    An exceptionally rare opportunity to own a recently constructed luxury home in The Oasis at Mattituck, a coveted cul-de-sac community of 25 estate residences with no HOA fees. Set on over an acre of land, this pristine home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, a 20 x 40 heated saltwater pool, and a spacious, customizable lower level with 3 egress windows and a private outside entrance. The pewter Hardie plank exterior paired with black Pella lifestyle windows establishes a clean, modern aesthetic that carries seamlessly throughout the home. Interior finishes are equally refined, featuring a high-end appliance package, a generous center island, premium Silestone countertops, wide-plank white oak flooring, imported Italian tile baths, a fully customizable smart home platform, and a whole-house fresh-air ventilation and humidity-control system. Private Breakwater Beach and the Long Island Sound are just a short stroll away, offering direct access to the Mattituck Inlet for boating enthusiasts. Offered fully furnished with tasteful, immaculate furnishings for the ultimate in turnkey convenience, this home is comparably priced to older properties in the area while delivering something altogether new, effortless, and enduring. Whether as a personal retreat, a powerful income-producing asset, or both, this is North Fork luxury at its most compelling and a veritable no-brainer.

16. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus $275,000
17. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus $1,750,000
18. 2018-01-23
    soldstatus $4,240,000
19. 2006-05-08
    soldstatus $5,750,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $16,774 · $1,398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,555 · $1,963/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,781/yr (+$565/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $184,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$16,774
• − Insurance: −$8,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,778
• − Management: −$14,778
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable loss: −$23,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,604
• After-tax cash flow: $12,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-68.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $1,835,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $1,895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,750,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $4,240,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $5,750,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,774 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.