16921 SW 64th St · Rainbow Springs, FL 34481

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

Built 2016 1.00 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. PRICE IMPROVEMENT! SELLER MOTIVATED! Welcome! This charming home with NO HOA presents an excellent opportunity to make your own. Boasting 1,680 sq ft under air, this 3BR / 2BA, plus a versatile office, is nestled on a spacious one-acre lot. Recent upgrades include a brand new septic system (2025), well (2025), and underground utilities, ensuring peace of mind and modern convenience. Step inside to discover an open floor plan that seamlessly combines the kitchen and family room—perfect for entertaining friends and family. The three bedrooms are generously sized, complemented by an additional room ideal for an office, guest space, or fit any perso

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• One-acre lot
• Brand new a/c unit

Tags

• ONE-ACRE LOT
• BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• BRAND NEW WELL
• BRAND NEW A/C UNIT
• UNDERGROUND UTILITIES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot approximately 1 acre (approx. dimensions 150 x 290, dirt road access)
• HOA & community: No association reported; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Directions provided to property
• Utilities: Private utilities; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential modular home; One story; Home faces south; Entry on one level; Zoned A1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as modular construction
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.7% in Rainbow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,677/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.35%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,480
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6449 SW 180th Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+6%)	11mo	$510,000	$286	50
6546 SW 180th Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+10%)	2mo	$322,000	$175	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $20,942
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $84,750
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3699 SW 169th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,100	$1.17	21d	1	0.44mi
6752 SW 179th Avenue Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1963	$4,500	$2.29	21d	1	0.92mi
6944 SW 179th Court Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$3,300	$2.24	14d	1	1.05mi
4738 SW 166th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,600	$0.90	14d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   status Active
3. 2026-04-30
   historical
4. 2026-04-01
   price $189,000
5. 2026-02-11
   price $195,000
6. 2026-01-07
   status Active
7. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-01
   price $208,000
9. 2025-09-19
   status Active
10. 2025-09-04
    status Pending
11. 2025-08-12
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $7,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $7,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $208,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid