14820 N Chesapeake Ln · Mead, WA 99021

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $163k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Shenandoah Forest Park—where tranquility meets convenience! This well-maintained ranch-style home sits beside a park with BBQ area, playground, and volleyball court. The open floor plan features a formal living room, cozy family room, dining area, and a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry, lots of counter space and room for a little table. The spacious primary suite offers great natural light, a large closet, and an en-suite bath with garden tub and walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests or office space. Enjoy the covered patio and expansive deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Oversized 20x30 garage with extra sto

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• Open floor plan
• Bbq area

Tags

• BBQ AREA
• PLAYGROUND
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• COZY FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.3% in Mead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#388 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mead School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #23 of 291 in WA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Ridge Elementary (395 students, 32% FRL); Mt Spokane High School (1,493 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.64%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14820 N Chesapeake Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,596 (0%)	1mo	$166,800	$105	99
14826 N Mcclean Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	3mo	$210,000	$125	81
3110 E Vicksburg Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-4%)	10mo	$114,000	$75	81
14620 N Bear Creek Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	12mo	$187,500	$116	80
14808 N Chesapeake Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	13mo	$175,000	$104	80
14828 N Shenandoah Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+9%)	0mo	$145,000	$84	80
14904 N Chesapeake Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-2%)	13mo	$160,000	$102	78
3126 E Vicksburg Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+9%)	8mo	$100,000	$58	76
2928 E Fort Sumter Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+5%)	6mo	$170,000	$101	72
3407 E Yankee Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	11mo	$158,500	$109	71
3420 E Georgia Pines Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	6mo	$118,800	$85	66
15005 N Surrey Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-9%)	6mo	$137,500	$94	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $17,456
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $74,038
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99021

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2228 E Winger Rd Spokane, WA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	44d	1	1.06mi
1019 E Brooklawn Dr Spokane, WA	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,400	$1.62	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$70/mo · 97.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $6,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $7,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mead School District
• NCES district ID: 5304920
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,176
• Composite: 59.93/100
• National rank: #1811
• State rank: #23 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #15310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mead, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,226

Population outlook (Spokane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 531,314 people
• By 2030: 549,278 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 577,822 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 598,188 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 630,744 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 622,360 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spokane

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.0% · R 51.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+8.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.33%
• Current HPI: 354.3985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $175,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $869 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.