2010 W Gaines St · Lawrenceburg, TN 38464

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1930 0.78 ac lot ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy cottage is in a great location! A beautiful natural setting with the David Crockett State Park just beyond the backyard fence! Enjoy all the wildlife and comfort in this country home; but wait you are only minutes away from town allowing you the best of both worlds!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 85 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered spaces listed; No total parking spaces listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Has a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom approximately 12 x 16; Second bedroom approximately 10 x 11; Third bedroom approximately 11 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; At least one bedroom with a full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($599/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#105 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: David Crockett Elementary (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #361 of 952 statewide, top 38%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Lawrence Co High School (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,143 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,419 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,630
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,781
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38464

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    status Active
16. 2026-04-09
    price $165,000
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $185,000 Active
18. 2026-03-10
    historical
19. 2026-01-12
    price $195,000
20. 2025-10-14
    price $209,900
21. 2025-09-13
    listed $219,900 Active
22. 2025-08-22
    historical 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This cozy cottage is in a great location! A beautiful natural setting with the David Crockett State Park just beyond the backyard fence! Enjoy all the wildlife and comfort in this country home; but wait you are only minutes away from town allowing you the best of both worlds!

23. 2025-03-12
    listed $279,000 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    This cozy cottage is in a great location! A beautiful natural setting with the David Crockett State Park just beyond the backyard fence! Enjoy all the wildlife and comfort in this country home; but wait you are only minutes away from town allowing you the best of both worlds!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 4702340
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,613
• Composite: 24.2/100
• National rank: #7729
• State rank: #67 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lawrenceburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #10729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrenceburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 23,727

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,724 people
• By 2030: 42,627 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 42,144 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 40,800 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 36,643 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 29,193 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.3pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.17%
• Current HPI: 291.6302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-40.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $165,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $185,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $195,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $209,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Listed $219,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $279,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.