3621 Gary St · Coyote Flats, TX 76031

$160,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1970 1.50 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits at 3621 Gary St in Cleburne, TX. Situated on approximately 1.5 wooded acres, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and potential in an established area. The manufactured home on site is livable but in need of TLC, making it an ideal candidate for buyers looking to renovate, customize, or leverage the land for future plans. The tree-covered lot provides a peaceful, country-style setting while still offering convenient access to town, major roadways, and local amenities. With ample room for outdoor living, gardening, workshops, or expansion, the property opens the door to multiple use cases—whether as a primary residence, investment opportunity, or land play. This is a value-add opportunity for buyers who see beyond cosmetic updates and recognize the long-term upside of acreage in Johnson County. Properties with this amount of land at this price point are increasingly hard to find. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

Key facts

• Tree-covered lot
• Gardening
• Wooded acres

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• TREE-COVERED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• GARDENING
• WORKSHOPS
• EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,193 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.89%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,269
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $64,267
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-03-13
    price $190,000 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 3621 Gary St in Cleburne, TX. Situated on approximately 1.5 wooded acres, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and potential in an established area. The manufactured home on site is livable but in need of TLC, making it an ideal candidate for buyers looking to renovate, customize, or leverage the land for future plans. The tree-covered lot provides a peaceful, country-style setting while still offering convenient access to town, major roadways, and local amenities. With ample room for outdoor living, gardening, workshops, or expansion, the property opens the door to multiple use cases—whether as a primary residence, investment opportunity, or land play. This is a value-add opportunity for buyers who see beyond cosmetic updates and recognize the long-term upside of acreage in Johnson County. Properties with this amount of land at this price point are increasingly hard to find. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

15. 2026-03-05
    price $195,000 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 3621 Gary St in Cleburne, TX. Situated on approximately 1.5 wooded acres, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and potential in an established area. The manufactured home on site is livable but in need of TLC, making it an ideal candidate for buyers looking to renovate, customize, or leverage the land for future plans. The tree-covered lot provides a peaceful, country-style setting while still offering convenient access to town, major roadways, and local amenities. With ample room for outdoor living, gardening, workshops, or expansion, the property opens the door to multiple use cases—whether as a primary residence, investment opportunity, or land play. This is a value-add opportunity for buyers who see beyond cosmetic updates and recognize the long-term upside of acreage in Johnson County. Properties with this amount of land at this price point are increasingly hard to find. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

16. 2026-03-03
    price $214,900 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 3621 Gary St in Cleburne, TX. Situated on approximately 1.5 wooded acres, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and potential in an established area. The manufactured home on site is livable but in need of TLC, making it an ideal candidate for buyers looking to renovate, customize, or leverage the land for future plans. The tree-covered lot provides a peaceful, country-style setting while still offering convenient access to town, major roadways, and local amenities. With ample room for outdoor living, gardening, workshops, or expansion, the property opens the door to multiple use cases—whether as a primary residence, investment opportunity, or land play. This is a value-add opportunity for buyers who see beyond cosmetic updates and recognize the long-term upside of acreage in Johnson County. Properties with this amount of land at this price point are increasingly hard to find. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

17. 2026-02-03
    listed $225,000 Active 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 3621 Gary St in Cleburne, TX. Situated on approximately 1.5 wooded acres, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and potential in an established area. The manufactured home on site is livable but in need of TLC, making it an ideal candidate for buyers looking to renovate, customize, or leverage the land for future plans. The tree-covered lot provides a peaceful, country-style setting while still offering convenient access to town, major roadways, and local amenities. With ample room for outdoor living, gardening, workshops, or expansion, the property opens the door to multiple use cases—whether as a primary residence, investment opportunity, or land play. This is a value-add opportunity for buyers who see beyond cosmetic updates and recognize the long-term upside of acreage in Johnson County. Properties with this amount of land at this price point are increasingly hard to find. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

18. 2013-02-19
    soldstatus
19. 2007-11-14
    soldstatus
20. 2007-11-14
    soldstatus
21. 1996-08-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$591/yr (+$49/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $5,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $6,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coyote Flats

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #20882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $214,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2013-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,337 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.