506 Kernohan St · Crosby, TX 77532

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1967 0.30 ac lot Est $261k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level not specified); Originally built in 1967
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot includes other notable features

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,355
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17311 Thor Well Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-4%)	3mo	$239,900	$160	85
707 Amberwood Creek Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-5%)	2mo	$268,990	$181	84
17314 Roxboro Ridge Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-5%)	3mo	$270,990	$183	84
17315 Glacier Forest Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-5%)	3mo	$268,990	$181	83
2547 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-0%)	5mo	$249,840	$160	78
17318 Roxboro Ridge Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+7%)	1mo	$279,990	$167	77
17323 Glacier Forest Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+7%)	3mo	$279,990	$167	75
17334 Roxboro Ridge Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+7%)	4mo	$281,990	$168	74
17327 Glacier Forest Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	3mo	$284,990	$162	66
17227 Boulder Beach Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+14%)	1mo	$249,020	$140	66
17318 Glacier Forest Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	4mo	$284,990	$162	65
6318 Borage St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-7%)	1mo	$249,999	$172	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,410
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,798
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,201/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $361	+0% $313	+5% $265	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $232	+0% $313	+5% $394	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $356	base $313	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15722 E Astern Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$1,896	$0.95	14d	1	1.02mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	44d	1	1.22mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,783	$1.30	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Pending 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   status $169,000 Pending 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,201 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,201 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$4,201
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosby, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,201 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.