Pima Plan · Deerwood, TX 77306

$178,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Family room
• Dining room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $178,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $186,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,880 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,990
• List price: $178,990
• Delta: -4.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3602 Duplet Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	96
17143 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	2mo	$189,990	$140	96
17135 Saxophone Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	87
17107 Saxophone Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	1mo	$184,990	$156	77
17131 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	77
17115 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	77
17127 Saxophone Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	0mo	$195,990	$128	72
17119 Saxophone Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$194,990	$127	69
3862 Highline Oaks W	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+1%)	0mo	$319,990	$234	69
17840 Lionheart Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+2%)	3mo	$224,900	$162	64
17678 Cedar Crest Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+2%)	6mo	$215,000	$155	58
17836 Lionheart Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (+12%)	6mo	$249,900	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,709
• Equity at exit: $27,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,031
• Equity at exit: $16,167

Cash invested: $52,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $186,990

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,748
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	43d	1	0.67mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,990 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,990 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,990 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,990 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,990 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $178,990 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,990 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,990 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,990 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,990 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,990 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,990 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,990 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,990 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $185,990 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,474
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$108
• After-tax cash flow: $2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is in good condition and ready for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and functional.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help manage energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and functional. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help manage energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $185,990 Zillow