507 E 5th St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$60,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · Other · 85 Days on market

Built 1920 1,000 sqft lot $63/sqft · 30% above area Est $46k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this well-maintained three bedroom, 1.5 bathroom half-double. Excellent starter home or investment property. The home features an updated electrical panel, modern oil furnace and electric hot water heater, and a half-bathroom in the kitchen. Two wall-mounted air conditioners and the washer and dryer are included in the sale.

Key facts

• Modern oil furnace
• 1,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1920

Tags

• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• MODERN OIL FURNACE
• ELECTRIC HOT WATER HEATER
• HALF-BATHROOM IN KITCHEN
• WALL-MOUNTED AIR CONDITIONERS
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.57%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,215
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 29.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $66,218
• Equity at exit: $38,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.35×
• Total profit: $157,119
• Equity at exit: $71,604

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $501

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $767	+0% $750	+5% $733	+10% $716
Rent	-10% $635	-5% $693	+0% $750	+5% $807	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $765	base $750	+0.5pp $734	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $60,000 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $60,000 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $62,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Don't miss this well-maintained three bedroom, 1.5 bathroom half-double. Excellent starter home or investment property. The home features an updated electrical panel, modern oil furnace and electric hot water heater, and a half-bathroom in the kitchen. Two wall-mounted air conditioners and the washer and dryer are included in the sale.

15. 2026-04-13
    price $64,500 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Don't miss this well-maintained three bedroom, 1.5 bathroom half-double. Excellent starter home or investment property. The home features an updated electrical panel, modern oil furnace and electric hot water heater, and a half-bathroom in the kitchen. Two wall-mounted air conditioners and the washer and dryer are included in the sale.

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $66,900 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Don't miss this well-maintained three bedroom, 1.5 bathroom half-double. Excellent starter home or investment property. The home features an updated electrical panel, modern oil furnace and electric hot water heater, and a half-bathroom in the kitchen. Two wall-mounted air conditioners and the washer and dryer are included in the sale.

17. 2024-06-17
    soldstatus $49,280

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $809 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $8,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $6,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+25.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $62,000 CSVBR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $64,500 CSVBR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $66,900 CSVBR
• 2024-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $49,280 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $670 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.