6005 Chancey Rd · Offerman, GA 31557

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1998 6.91 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away down a private driveway, this serene 6.91 acre property offers the perfect blend of privacy and peaceful country living. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a nearby farm, the setting is quiet and secluded-ideal for those seeking a retreat from the hustle and bustle. The property features a two bedroom, one bathroom mobile home and a storage building, offering both living space and practical storage solutions. Located in northern Pierce County, just outside of Patterson, GA, this hidden gem is the perfect place to enjoy nature, start a homestead, or simply relax in your own wooded haven.

Key facts

• Secluded retreat
• Private driveway
• Storage building

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• MATURE TREES
• QUIET SETTING
• SECLUDED RETREAT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• WOODED HAVEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#555 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,423 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $68,171
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $209,024
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31557

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $115,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-127	+0% $-168	+5% $-209	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-202	+0% $-168	+5% $-134	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-131	base $-168	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $145,000 Under Contract 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   price $145,000 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Tucked away down a private driveway, this serene 6.91 acre property offers the perfect blend of privacy and peaceful country living. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a nearby farm, the setting is quiet and secluded-ideal for those seeking a retreat from the hustle and bustle. The property features a two bedroom, one bathroom mobile home and a storage building, offering both living space and practical storage solutions. Located in northern Pierce County, just outside of Patterson, GA, this hidden gem is the perfect place to enjoy nature, start a homestead, or simply relax in your own wooded haven.

8. 2026-03-23
   price $149,000 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Tucked away down a private driveway, this serene 6.91 acre property offers the perfect blend of privacy and peaceful country living. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a nearby farm, the setting is quiet and secluded-ideal for those seeking a retreat from the hustle and bustle. The property features a two bedroom, one bathroom mobile home and a storage building, offering both living space and practical storage solutions. Located in northern Pierce County, just outside of Patterson, GA, this hidden gem is the perfect place to enjoy nature, start a homestead, or simply relax in your own wooded haven.

9. 2026-02-11
   price $155,000 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Tucked away down a private driveway, this serene 6.91 acre property offers the perfect blend of privacy and peaceful country living. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a nearby farm, the setting is quiet and secluded-ideal for those seeking a retreat from the hustle and bustle. The property features a two bedroom, one bathroom mobile home and a storage building, offering both living space and practical storage solutions. Located in northern Pierce County, just outside of Patterson, GA, this hidden gem is the perfect place to enjoy nature, start a homestead, or simply relax in your own wooded haven.

10. 2025-10-15
    listed $159,000 New 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Tucked away down a private driveway, this serene 6.91 acre property offers the perfect blend of privacy and peaceful country living. Surrounded by mature trees and bordered by a nearby farm, the setting is quiet and secluded-ideal for those seeking a retreat from the hustle and bustle. The property features a two bedroom, one bathroom mobile home and a storage building, offering both living space and practical storage solutions. Located in northern Pierce County, just outside of Patterson, GA, this hidden gem is the perfect place to enjoy nature, start a homestead, or simply relax in your own wooded haven.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$971/yr (+$81/mo · 267.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$830
• − Management: −$830
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$4,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Offerman

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #24480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23
• Population (ZIP): 3,717

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.95%
• Current HPI: 289.3963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $145,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $149,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $155,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $159,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +51.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.