1010 22nd St · San Leon, TX 77539

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 420 sqft · Manufactured public records · 260 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2005 Good condition 10,672 sqft lot $571/sqft · 158% above area Est $403k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.7

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a tour of this 2 bedroom 1 bath upstairs or 1 bedroom with study. Downstairs features a separate apartment with 2 bedroom, 1 bath or 1 bedroom and office, living area and kitchenette below. Spacious living with vaulted ceilings, laminate flooring open to large kitchen with lots of cabinets, study or smaller second bedroom, master bedroom with walk in closet, master bath with jacuzzi tub and separate, oversized shower. Large wrap around deck with picnic table and water view. Numerous windows provide lots of natural light. Downstairs unit is perfect for guests or rental income. Separate RV pad with hook ups. Mobile home in back stays with home or can be moved if needed.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 259 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $75k (68.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (68.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.7% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Leon El (math 27% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 658 students, 84% FRL); R D Mcadams J H (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 65% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 844 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 14941% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,303 (68.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.70%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,988
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -40.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
919 16th St	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-2)	432 (+3%)	50mo	$55,000	$127	42
2888 Avenue H	1.86mi	1/1.0 (-2)	416 (-1%)	18mo	$149,000	$358	34
625 6th St	1.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	384 (-9%)	42mo	$79,500	$207	22
418 Broadway	1.23mi	1/1.0 (-2)	372 (-11%)	36mo	$80,000	$215	12
2850 Avenue H	1.80mi	2/1.0 (-1)	512 (+22%)	46mo	$160,000	$313	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -62.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-114,554
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.06×
• Total profit: $-205,477
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 844
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-1,137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $75,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-972	-5% $-1,055	+0% $-1,137	+5% $-1,220	+10% $-1,303
Rent	-10% $-1,232	-5% $-1,185	+0% $-1,137	+5% $-1,090	+10% $-1,043
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,017	-0.5pp $-1,076	base $-1,137	+0.5pp $-1,200	+1.0pp $-1,263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,900 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $239,900 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,900 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,900 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 239 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 238 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 237 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 236 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 235 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 234 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 233 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 232 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 231 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 230 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 228 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 227 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 226 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 225 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 224 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 223 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 222 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 221 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    price $239,900 Active 220 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,900 Active 220 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,900 Active 219 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $244,900 Active 218 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $244,900 Active 217 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $244,900 Active 215 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $244,900 Active 213 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $244,900 Active 212 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 209 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 208 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 207 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 206 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 204 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 200 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 199 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 198 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 195 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$6,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$18,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,100–$6,300 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and ample natural light. The home is move-in ready and has good potential for rental income.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install new outdoor carpet — Enhances curb appeal and provides comfort ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Leon El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle John And Shamarion Barber Middle C+ TX #275/1,662 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Rental Removed $1,195 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,195 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2023-07-14 Listed $299,900 HARMLS