10205 Neptune Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$270,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $168/sqft · 14% below area Est $316k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• VIEWS OF NATURE
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,803 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,302
• List price: $270,530
• Delta: -14.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10312 Neptune Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,612 (0%)	2mo	$265,030	$164	94
10313 Neptune Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+5%)	1mo	$298,465	$177	79
10225 Altair Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+5%)	3mo	$279,575	$165	79
10409 Neptune Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+5%)	2mo	$280,965	$166	76
10712 Peperak Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-1%)	2mo	$279,000	$175	73
11108 Beckon Fls	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (+2%)	2mo	$279,900	$171	59
5800 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+11%)	0mo	$325,820	$183	59
5308 Tama Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+7%)	2mo	$302,000	$176	57
11100 Beckon Fls	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+4%)	2mo	$279,900	$168	56
10405 Aquilla Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+13%)	2mo	$383,400	$210	52
10805 Peperak Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-15%)	0mo	$283,000	$207	50
9448 Centennial Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+14%)	0mo	$295,000	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,667
• Equity at exit: $40,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,698
• Equity at exit: $23,390

Cash invested: $75,748 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $291,900 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $270,530

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $95	+0% $1	+5% $-92	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-92	+0% $1	+5% $95	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $70	base $1	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,632
• Closing costs: $8,116
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	116d	1	0.06mi
10221 Altair Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$2,250	$1.78	4d	1	0.08mi
10104 Bethlehem Ct Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,785	$1.68	3d	1	0.12mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	109d	1	0.53mi
11220 Haviture Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	5d	1	0.74mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	139d	1	0.87mi
10209 Lilac Ln Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	0d	1	0.92mi
10205 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.92mi
10201 Iris Ln Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.98mi
9917 Desperado Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,245	$1.08	0d	1	1.35mi
7101 Sulphur Ct China Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,400	$1.41	0d	1	1.46mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	109d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $270,530 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   days on market $270,530 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $270,530 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   days on market $270,530 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $270,530 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-07-12
   days on market $270,530 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $270,530 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $270,530 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-07-09
   days on market $270,530 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-07-08
    days on market $270,530 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-07-07
    days on market $270,530 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $270,530 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-07-05
    days on market $270,530 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-07-04
    days on market $270,530 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-07-03
    price $270,530 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-07-03
    days on market $285,530 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-07-02
    days on market $285,530 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-07-01
    days on market $285,530 Active 42 DOM
19. 2026-06-30
    days on market $285,530 Active 41 DOM
20. 2026-06-29
    days on market $285,530 Active 40 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,530 Active 39 DOM
22. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,530 Active 38 DOM
23. 2026-06-27
    days on market $285,530 Active 37 DOM
24. 2026-06-25
    days on market $285,530 Active 35 DOM
25. 2026-06-23
    days on market $285,530 Active 33 DOM
26. 2026-06-22
    days on market $285,530 Active 32 DOM
27. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,530 Active 29 DOM
28. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,530 Active 28 DOM
29. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,530 Active 27 DOM
30. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,530 Active 26 DOM
31. 2026-06-14
    days on market $285,530 Active 24 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,530 Active 23 DOM
33. 2026-06-10
    days on market $285,530 Active 21 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,530 Active 20 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,530 Active 19 DOM
36. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,530 Active 18 DOM
37. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,530 Active 13 DOM
38. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,530 Active 12 DOM
39. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,530 Active 11 DOM
40. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,530 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,154
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − Depreciation: −$7,870
• Taxable loss: −$4,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a spacious floor plan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary China Spring El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle China Spring Middle B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High China Spring H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

---

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B