15702 Lone Juniper Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$249,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 $111/sqft · 8% below area Est $273k · 8% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,748 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,572
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -8.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-31,864
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,932
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,129/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,027

Max offer price $249,990

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $249,990 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $254,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

16. 2026-05-08
    historical 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

17. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

18. 2026-05-04
    price $311,040 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $237,990 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

20. 2026-03-28
    price $237,990 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

21. 2026-03-27
    listed $249,990 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

22. 2026-03-25
    price $249,990 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

23. 2026-03-25
    listed $311,040 Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING OPTIONS Introducing the Magellan floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,260 square feet of modern living space. One bedroom and full bath are located on the first floor, providing an ideal space for guests or flexible living needs, while the open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

24. 2025-06-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,445/yr (+$287/mo · 305.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$1,129
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$1,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $2,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $311,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $311,040 HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records