4128 Audubon Ave · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$314,850

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,609 sqft · Land · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Meet our beautifully designed one-story home called the Harper, offering 1,609 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The Harper combines open-concept living, functional design, and comfortable space all on one convenient level. This single-story floorplan is ideal for growing families, downsizers, or anyone looking for a smart and comfortable layout. This thoughtfully crafted floor plan features a spacious kitchen that opens to the gathering area, creating the perfect central hub for everyday living and entertaining. With plenty of room for a dedicated dining space, you can enjoy both casual meals and special gatherings with ease. Step outside to the covered patio, ideal

Key facts

• Open concept living
• One story home
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,381 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-73,339
• Equity at exit: $46,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-107,515
• Equity at exit: $27,222

Cash invested: $88,158 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,604

Max offer price $268,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-172	+0% $-261	+5% $-350	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-351	+0% $-261	+5% $-171	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-181	base $-261	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,712
• Closing costs: $9,446
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.56mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.56mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.57mi
1507 Julia St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,020	$1.25	3d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $314,850
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $314,940 Active
4. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $1,530,000
5. 2025-08-22
   soldstatus $11,212,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,636
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,159
• Taxable loss: −$8,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a smart home system, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home technology — Enhances home security and convenience
• Both Smart lighting — Improves energy efficiency and ambiance
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and peace of mind

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home technology — Enhances home security and convenience ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Improves energy efficiency and ambiance ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort ↑
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and peace of mind ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $314,850 realMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $314,940 realMLS
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,530,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $11,212,500 Public Records