2129 Willow Crossing Pkwy #264 · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$184,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $137/sqft · 31% below area Est $269k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home perfectly located across from our community green space for added views and outdoor enjoyment! Inside, you ll love the spacious kitchen featuring a coffee bar and room for bar stools, making it ideal for casual dining and entertaining. All three bedrooms include walk-in closets, providing plenty of storage and convenience for everyone. A storage shed adds even more space for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Schedule a tour to see this charming home in person!

Key facts

• Whirlpool appliances
• Open-concept living
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BAR-HEIGHT COUNTERTOP
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,895 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.57%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,798
• List price: $184,995
• Delta: -31.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,144
• Equity at exit: $27,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,948
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $184,995

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,249
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	4d	1	0.09mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	4d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,995 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,995 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,995 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,995 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,995 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,995 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,995 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,995 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,995 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,995 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,995 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,995 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,995 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,995 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $184,995 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Come see this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home perfectly located across from our community green space for added views and outdoor enjoyment! Inside, you ll love the spacious kitchen featuring a coffee bar and room for bar stools, making it ideal for casual dining and entertaining. All three bedrooms include walk-in closets, providing plenty of storage and convenience for everyone. A storage shed adds even more space for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Schedule a tour to see this charming home in person!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $3,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior, landscaping, and interior can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — A patio or deck can increase outdoor living space and enhance curb appeal.
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a storage shed or garage — Additional storage can be beneficial for both resale and rental, especially in a community setting.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — A patio or deck can increase outdoor living space and enhance curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a storage shed or garage — Additional storage can be beneficial for both resale and rental, especially in a community setting. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $184,995 Zillow