2881 State Highway 110 N · Tyler, TX 75704

$30,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PERSONAL PROPERTY, NO LAND, HOME IS IN LAKE FOREST MOBIL HOME PARK COMMUNITY and lot rent is paid monthly. HOME IS A LANCER 14X74, 3 BED WITH 2 FULL BATHS MANUFACTERED HOME. INCLUDED IS A 2 CAR CARPORT AND COVERED PATIO WALKWAY. ALSO HAS A 8 X 10 STORAGE SHED INCLUDED. HAS A NEW ROOF OVER, NEW CENTRAL AC, NEW FURNACE, NEW VINYL FLOORING IN KITCHEN, NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOP, NEW SINK AND FAUCET, NEW SUBFLOOR UNDER KITCHEN CABINETS, REFRIGERATOR, STOVE AND ENTRANCE AREA DONE JULY 2024, NEW HOT WATER HEATER INSTALLED Nov 2025. SORRY STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER OR DRYER ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE SALE WITH THE HOME but may be purchased. HOME SITS ON A RENTED LOT IN LAKE FOREST MHP. COMMUNITY. OWNER

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• New furnace
• 8 x 10 storage shed

Tags

• 2 CAR CARPORT
• COVERED PATIO WALKWAY
• 8 X 10 STORAGE SHED
• NEW ROOF OVER
• NEW CENTRAL AC
• NEW FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 49.2% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dixie El (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 616 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 66% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tyler ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 153.21%
• DSCR: 7.82
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $63,470
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.06×
• Total profit: $143,324
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75704

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,072

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,072	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,052
Rent	-10% $945	-5% $1,008	+0% $1,072	+5% $1,136	+10% $1,200
Rate	-1.0pp $1,088	-0.5pp $1,080	base $1,072	+0.5pp $1,065	+1.0pp $1,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2007 Bradshaw Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	44d	1	0.97mi
12890 County Road 46 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	44d	1	1.32mi
12400 Kara Lynn Pl Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,745	$1.13	21d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   listed $30,000 Active
3. 2022-09-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $13,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,162
• After-tax cash flow: $9,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 127,842
• Population (ZIP): 9,280

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.96%
• Current HPI: 219.5206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $30,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+57.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,991 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.