15643 County Road 2177 E · Lake Cherokee, TX 75691

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1998 3.00 ac lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful opportunity to own a spacious 1,560 sq ft country home situated on 3 serene acres in Tatum ISD! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home features a bright and open-concept living and dining combination, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The functional kitchen space flows seamlessly into the main living areas. Outside, enjoy the peace and quiet of rural living with a substantial 420 sq ft carport providing side-by-side covered parking. Quietly situated outside city limits, this property offers incredible potential to customize your dream homestead. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Substantial carport
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SUBSTANTIAL CARPORT
• CUSTOMIZE DREAM HOMESTEAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: - Treat as clear loan type; - No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: - No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: - 2-space carport
• Utilities: - No utilities listed (utilities: None); - Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: - Mobile home (residential); - Single-story / One level
• Construction: - Built in 1998
• Exterior features: - Approximately 3 acres of land; - Property located on County Road 2177 E (directions from Tatum available)

Interior

• Kitchen: - Other appliances
• Bedrooms: - 3 bedrooms (all on the main level), including a primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: - 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: - 7 total rooms; - One-level layout; - 1 living area; - 1 dining area; - Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($306/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tatum ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #194 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tatum El (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 325 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,602 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $19,623
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $67,511
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75691

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $68	+0% $25	+5% $-17	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $-21	+0% $25	+5% $72	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $64	base $25	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 597-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,186/yr (+$182/mo · 391.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tatum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842240
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,958
• Composite: 41.95/100
• National rank: #3351
• State rank: #194 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Cherokee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Cherokee, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,673

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 17% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-38.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $229,900 GTAR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $244,500 GTAR

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · -26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.