Catarina Plan · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$369,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,195 sqft · SingleFamily · 179 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Catarina is a versatile two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces designed to grow with your needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 178 days

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $473,492.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.1% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 887 students, 13% FRL); Dripping Springs Middle (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 882 students, 0% FRL); Dripping Springs H S (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,433 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,395 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,492
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -21.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Great Sequoia Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,951 (-11%)	2mo	$424,241	$217	72
344 Milkwood Ter	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,362 (+8%)	1mo	$489,985	$207	72
458 Bishop Wood Rd	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (+3%)	2mo	$499,990	$222	70
165 Senna Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,175 (-1%)	0mo	$540,000	$248	69
587 Bishop Wood Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,289 (+4%)	0mo	$424,990	$186	68
126 Buckthorn Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,153 (-2%)	1mo	$359,900	$167	67
221 Hilltop Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	2,134 (-3%)	0mo	$460,000	$216	61
578 Darley Oak Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,963 (-11%)	1mo	$429,990	$219	61
296 Bishop Wood Rd	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+11%)	1mo	$504,990	$207	56
1107 Lucca Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,955 (-11%)	2mo	$485,000	$248	55
380 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,495 (+14%)	1mo	$536,393	$215	55
105 Mount Ord Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,876 (-14%)	1mo	$379,500	$202	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-144,407
• Equity at exit: $70,599

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-222,064
• Equity at exit: $40,939

Cash invested: $132,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,483
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$592 /mo · $7,102/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,142

Max offer price $327,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-682	-5% $-846	+0% $-1,010	+5% $-1,173	+10% $-1,337
Rent	-10% $-1,236	-5% $-1,123	+0% $-1,010	+5% $-897	+10% $-783
Rate	-1.0pp $-771	-0.5pp $-889	base $-1,010	+0.5pp $-1,132	+1.0pp $-1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,373
• Closing costs: $14,205
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
358 Darley Oak Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2543	$3,250	$1.28	19d	1	0.15mi
468 Milkwood Ter Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,450	$1.65	45d	1	0.18mi
134 Big Banyan Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.23mi
394 Bishop Wood Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2182	$3,200	$1.47	25d	1	0.36mi
160 Loving Trl Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2760	$2,075	$0.75	25d	1	0.44mi
115 Iron Rail Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.58mi
106 Buckthorn Dr Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2258	$2,450	$1.09	6d	1	0.64mi
210 Dome Peak Ter Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.65mi
253 Spanish Star Trl Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.66mi
787 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2319	$2,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.74mi
435 Hays St Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$5,250	$2.69	45d	1	0.80mi
319 Pecos River Xing Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	19d	1	0.80mi
779 Founders Rdg Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2123	$3,300	$1.55	4d	1	0.82mi
856 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1948	$2,550	$1.31	14d	1	0.83mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.87mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.87mi
386 El Capitan Loop Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2047	$2,900	$1.42	19d	1	1.28mi
1282 S Rob Shelton Blvd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,756	$2.80	0d	47	1.30mi
500 Harmon Hills Cv Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,500	$1.71	45d	1	1.34mi
285 Cathedral Mountain Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2111	$3,100	$1.47	6d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,990 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,990 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $369,990 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    The Catarina is a versatile two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces designed to grow with your needs.

17. 2026-01-15
    status Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    The Catarina is a versatile two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces designed to grow with your needs.

18. 2026-01-14
    historical 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    The Catarina is a versatile two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces designed to grow with your needs.

19. 2025-12-24
    listed $399,990 Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    The Catarina is a versatile two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces designed to grow with your needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,523
• − Property taxes: −$7,102
• − Insurance: −$2,367
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − Depreciation: −$13,774
• Taxable loss: −$20,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Listed $399,990 Zillow