35 Patterson Rd · Shirley, MA 01464

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot Est $118k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 35 Patterson Rd. , Shirley, MA! This 1-acre lot presents a fantastic opportunity for your next project. The existing mobile home offers approximately 960 sq. ft. of living space, including two bedrooms, one bathroom, and a home office. The seller will remove select personal belongings; however, the buyer will be responsible for removing any remaining items. The lot features town water and a private septic system. The two-bedroom septic system has passed Title V, and a Certificate of Compliance is in hand. This property is being sold “as-is” and needs significant work, and may not qualify for all types of financing. Buyers are encouraged to perform their own due dilige

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Town water
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• TOWN WATER
• PRIVATE SEPTIC SYSTEM
• TWO BEDROOM SEPTIC SYSTEM
• CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street open parking; Unpaved stone/gravel parking for 4 vehicles; Total 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers, 100 amp; Gas available for range and oven
• Home design: Modular mobile home; House structure; Beige exterior; Thermostat (energy efficient feature)
• Construction: Rubber roof; Built as modular construction; Year built: public records indicate unknown/mixed
• Exterior features: Wood deck; Rain gutters; Exterior storage; Wooded lot with steep slope; On-site stream; Public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas stove; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor with closet and wall-to-wall carpet; Second bedroom on second floor with closet and wall-to-wall carpet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating (leased propane tank); Wood stove; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Home office; Internet available
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.1% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#145 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.66%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,760
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
83 Clark Rd Unit L-19	0.41mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	2mo	$24,999	$30	65
83 Clark Rd #1	0.41mi	2/1.5	984 (+7%)	3mo	$180,000	$183	65
83 Clark Rd #41	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	810 (-12%)	6mo	$65,000	$80	51
83 Clark Rd #61	0.48mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	18mo	$125,000	$128	47
83 Clark Rd Unit L-53	0.48mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	19mo	$125,500	$128	47
138 Ayer Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,004 (+9%)	23mo	$299,900	$299	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-427
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,225
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01464

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $346	+0% $311	+5% $276	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $252	+0% $311	+5% $370	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $343	base $311	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Chapel St Unit B Shirley, MA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	1.01mi
71 Chapel St Unit 2 Shirley, MA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,475	$2.11	2d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Back On Market
16. 2026-05-03
    status Under Agreement
17. 2026-04-30
    status Under Agreement
18. 2026-04-30
    historical
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $125,000 New
20. 2009-01-09
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 1997-02-14
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $3,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #8998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,017

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 7% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.49%
• Current HPI: 259.7214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2026-05-03 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-30 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-28 Listed $125,000 MLS PIN
• 2009-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.