64 & 66 Ellsworth Rd · Lake George, NY 12845

$230,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1950 0.28 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, adorable and unique - 10 seasonal rentals! 3 homes, 4 cottages & 3 cabins on three parcels with opportunity to expand. Authentic 50's style property yet completely updated: Roofs, plumbing, heaters, appliances, bedding, etc. Inspections complete! Possible conversion and/or later sell parcels separately. Convenient to all that LG has to offer. Great Income!

Key facts

• Hidden staircase
• Short term rental
• Large covered porch

Tags

• SHORT TERM RENTAL
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• DEAD-END STREET
• HIDDEN STAIRCASE
• FINISHED RECREATION QUARTERS
• LARGE COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.8% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.31%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $187,844
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $503,961
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,549/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-30
   price $230,000
3. 2025-09-15
   price $250,000
4. 2025-08-25
   price $259,900
5. 2025-07-25
   price $265,000
6. 2025-06-26
   listed $272,000 Active
7. 2018-06-21
   soldstatus $185,000
8. 2012-03-02
   soldstatus $300,000
9. 2012-02-21
   soldstatus $300,000 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Beautiful, adorable and unique - 10 seasonal rentals! 3 homes, 4 cottages & 3 cabins on three parcels with opportunity to expand. Authentic 50's style property yet completely updated: Roofs, plumbing, heaters, appliances, bedding, etc. Inspections complete! Possible conversion and/or later sell parcels separately. Convenient to all that LG has to offer. Great Income!

10. 2011-10-06
    listed $350,000 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Beautiful, adorable and unique - 10 seasonal rentals! 3 homes, 4 cottages & 3 cabins on three parcels with opportunity to expand. Authentic 50's style property yet completely updated: Roofs, plumbing, heaters, appliances, bedding, etc. Inspections complete! Possible conversion and/or later sell parcels separately. Convenient to all that LG has to offer. Great Income!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,549
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,034
• − Management: −$3,034
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $8,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $9,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $230,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $259,900 Global MLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $265,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $272,000 Global MLS
• 2018-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-21 Sold (MLS) $300,000 Global MLS
• 2011-10-06 Listed $350,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,549 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.