705 Neill St · Buxton, ND 58218

$44,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1925 7,056 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Great location
• Loft bedroom
• 7,056 sq ft lot

Tags

• LOFT BEDROOM
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.162 acres (approx. 50 x 140)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking area; No garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric fuel source
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half story layout; Entry facing directions not specified
• Construction: Finished area above grade: 1,511; Foundation area: 1,511
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two on the main level and one on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central air
• Interior features: Family room on the main level; Kitchen on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#34 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Valley 3 (rural): math 65% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #4 of 169 in ND (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Traill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Traill County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,324 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.46%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,144
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Broadway	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+5%)	20mo	$165,000	$104	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $50,502
• Equity at exit: $27,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.46×
• Total profit: $119,140
• Equity at exit: $50,497

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58218

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,073/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $44,999

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   price $44,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $47,999 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,999 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $47,999 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,999 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,999 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,999 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,999 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $47,999 Active
17. 2026-05-13
    historical
18. 2026-05-12
    price $48,999
19. 2026-04-22
    price $52,250
20. 2026-03-03
    price $54,999
21. 2026-01-08
    price $56,999
22. 2025-11-30
    price $57,999
23. 2025-11-15
    price $59,999
24. 2025-11-12
    listed $64,999 Active
25. 2025-06-07
    historical
26. 2025-01-22
    status Active
27. 2025-01-20
    price $62,500
28. 2024-12-05
    listed $69,000 Active
29. 2024-12-05
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,073
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,638
• After-tax cash flow: $5,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Valley 3
• NCES district ID: 3804140
• Math proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,099
• Composite: 60.22/100
• National rank: #1751
• State rank: #4 of 169 in ND

Livability — Buxton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #5037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buxton, ND
• Population (ZIP): 819

Population outlook (Traill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,107 people
• By 2030: 8,099 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 8,151 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 8,384 · +3.4%
• By 2075: 9,868 · +21.7%
• By 2100: 12,181 · +50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Native American 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 46% Lithuanian 8% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Traill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.3% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.8pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+24.9 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Current HPI: 119.859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $47,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $48,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $52,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $54,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $56,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $57,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $59,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $64,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $62,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 2024-12-05 Listed $69,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,073 · -44.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.