9592 Starling Loop · Leesburg, FL 34788

$393,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,856 sqft · Land · 108 Days on market

Built 2025 0.25 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Ready for the Florida lifestyle? You'll love living at Silver Lake Pointe, where you're just minutes from all the shopping, dining, and entertainment of downtown Leesburg and Mount Dora. Plus, you'll have three major lakes and beautiful Silver Lake right in your backyard, and plenty of nearby parks and golf courses offering endless recreational opportunities! Choose one of our open-concept floor plans with expertly selected design features to make it uniquely yours! Then, get ready to enjoy the sunny days ahead at the future on-site amenities, including a swimming pool, cabana, and playground. Your dream home awaits at Silv

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Cabana
• On-site amenities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• ON-SITE AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• CABANA
• PLAYGROUND
• OUTDOOR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,278/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $327,836 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-52,110
• Equity at exit: $58,745

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-30,676
• Equity at exit: $34,065

Cash invested: $110,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $393,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $298	+0% $187	+5% $75	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $57	+0% $187	+5% $316	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $385	-0.5pp $287	base $187	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,498
• Closing costs: $11,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33932 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	24d	1	0.47mi
33732 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2170	$3,000	$1.38	24d	1	1.07mi
33721 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	5.0	3.0	3900	$4,999	$1.28	5d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   price $393,990
3. 2026-01-06
   price $370,990
4. 2025-12-17
   listed $380,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,270 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,393/yr (+$199/mo · 272.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,070
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,147
• − Management: −$3,147
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$11,462
• Taxable loss: −$4,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 406.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $393,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $370,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $380,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $877 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.