2 Hickory Ln · Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,995,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,402 sqft · MultiFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2024 1,331 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Discover an oasis of refined summer living in the heart of Watermill Crossing - a townhome where modern sophistication meets resort-style comfort. Spanning approximately 3,402 square feet over three meticulously designed levels, this compelling retreat offers an unparalleled escape masterfully designed by McDonough & Conroy with interiors from Mabley Handler. On the main level, 1,154 square feet of luminous living space greet you with an inviting foyer, a light filled great room with a natural gas fireplace, and a custom Italian kitchen by Spectrum. Crafted with white high-gloss cabinetry, a grey perused island, quartz countertops, Sub-Zero/Bosch appliances, a Wolf gas range, and an u

Key facts

• Bluestone patio
• Fully equipped gym
• 1,331 sq ft lot

Tags

• CUSTOM ITALIAN KITCHEN
• NATURAL GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• BLUESTONE PATIO
• FULLY EQUIPPED GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21k ($247k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $3.00M).
• Recommended offer: $2.95M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $52,266/mo this rent would consume 348% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $279k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $258k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $839k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$447k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.95M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $2.27M; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $2,950,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.47%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $2,944,311
• Equity at exit: $2,405,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.87×
• Total profit: $8,275,846
• Equity at exit: $4,903,587

Cash invested: $838,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,744 /mo · $44,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,976
• Net cashflow: $20,593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $26,200

Max offer price $2,995,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22,662	-5% $21,627	+0% $20,593	+5% $19,558	+10% $18,523
Rent	-10% $16,464	-5% $18,528	+0% $20,593	+5% $22,657	+10% $24,722
Rate	-1.0pp $22,101	-0.5pp $21,354	base $20,593	+0.5pp $19,817	+1.0pp $19,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $748,750
• Closing costs: $89,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Water Mill Towd Rd Water Mill, NY	4.0	4.0	3800	$55,000	$14.47	44d	1	0.88mi
6 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2648	$50,000	$18.88	44d	1	1.26mi
20 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	5.0	5.5	4500	$25,000	$5.56	11d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-06
   listed $2,995,000 Active
3. 2025-06-30
   soldstatus $2,265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $627,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$167,767
• − Property taxes: −$44,925
• − Insurance: −$14,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,176
• − Management: −$50,176
• − Depreciation: −$87,127
• Taxable income: $212,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50,892
• After-tax cash flow: $196,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,265,000 Public Records