4868 Monica St · Auburn, MI 48611

$215,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,231 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1960 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, updated ranch with standout indoor comfort and an incredible backyard setup. Fresh exterior paint and new gables boost curb appeal, while inside you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting, and modern ceiling fans throughout. Both bathroom's have been tastefully updated, and the home offers great storage and functionality. The finished basement adds valuable flex space with an office, laundry area, and bonus rooms. One room offers potential to become a bedroom with the addition of an egress window. Step outside and enjoy a backyard that truly shines - featuring two custom-built decks with built-in seating, producing fruit trees and vines, established landscaping, and a 24x24 garden with raised beds and stone walkways and a 8x12 shed with new roof and paint. Additional highlights include a newer water heater, whole house generator (2025), deep 1.5 car garage, and a fire pit. Located in the desirable and highly sought-after Bay City Public Schools district, this home is truly a rare find that combines everyday comfort with a backyard you wont want to leave.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.37 acres (90 x 180)
• Financial info: Tax information not included as requested
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (approximately 1.5 garage spaces)
• Security: Security features not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Gas water heater (no additional appliances listed)
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#210 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $215k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $178,101 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-28,343
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,552
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48611

• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,039/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $215,000 Active 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Charming, updated ranch with standout indoor comfort and an incredible backyard setup. Fresh exterior paint and new gables boost curb appeal, while inside you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting, and modern ceiling fans throughout. Both bathroom's have been tastefully updated, and the home offers great storage and functionality. The finished basement adds valuable flex space with an office, laundry area, and bonus rooms. One room offers potential to become a bedroom with the addition of an egress window. Step outside and enjoy a backyard that truly shines - featuring two custom-built decks with built-in seating, producing fruit trees and vines, established landscaping, and a 24x24 garden with raised beds and stone walkways and a 8x12 shed with new roof and paint. Additional highlights include a newer water heater, whole house generator (2025), deep 1.5 car garage, and a fire pit. Located in the desirable and highly sought-after Bay City Public Schools district, this home is truly a rare find that combines everyday comfort with a backyard you wont want to leave.

2. 2026-05-22
   listed $215,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Charming, updated ranch with standout indoor comfort and an incredible backyard setup. Fresh exterior paint and new gables boost curb appeal, while inside you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting, and modern ceiling fans throughout. Both bathroom's have been tastefully updated, and the home offers great storage and functionality. The finished basement adds valuable flex space with an office, laundry area, and bonus rooms. One room offers potential to become a bedroom with the addition of an egress window. Step outside and enjoy a backyard that truly shines - featuring two custom-built decks with built-in seating, producing fruit trees and vines, established landscaping, and a 24x24 garden with raised beds and stone walkways and a 8x12 shed with new roof and paint. Additional highlights include a newer water heater, whole house generator (2025), deep 1.5 car garage, and a fire pit. Located in the desirable and highly sought-after Bay City Public Schools district, this home is truly a rare find that combines everyday comfort with a backyard you wont want to leave.

3. 2026-05-20
   historical $215,000 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Charming, updated ranch with standout indoor comfort and an incredible backyard setup. Fresh exterior paint and new gables boost curb appeal, while inside you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting, and modern ceiling fans throughout. Both bathroom's have been tastefully updated, and the home offers great storage and functionality. The finished basement adds valuable flex space with an office, laundry area, and bonus rooms. One room offers potential to become a bedroom with the addition of an egress window. Step outside and enjoy a backyard that truly shines - featuring two custom-built decks with built-in seating, producing fruit trees and vines, established landscaping, and a 24x24 garden with raised beds and stone walkways and a 8x12 shed with new roof and paint. Additional highlights include a newer water heater, whole house generator (2025), deep 1.5 car garage, and a fire pit. Located in the desirable and highly sought-after Bay City Public Schools district, this home is truly a rare find that combines everyday comfort with a backyard you wont want to leave.

4. 2018-06-11
   soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,136/yr (+$95/mo · 109.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,039
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #5234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,013

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 8% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.70%
• Current HPI: 180.8023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+102.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,039 · -48.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.