201 Rock Creek Rd #14 · Graford, TX 76449

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $114/sqft · 21% below area Est $151k · 21% under · waterfront ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to lake life at beautiful Possum Kingdom Lake! This newer 2 bedroom 2 bath ONE OWNER home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and resort style living. Designed with a modern layout, the homes features an open living area, well appointed kitchen, and private bedrooms ideal for relaxing after a day on the water. Situated on a large lot with trees, the backyard offers privacy and a wonderful outdoor fire pit with seating. Located in a vibrant lakefront community, ROCK CREEK CAMP residents enjoy resort style pools, excellent fishing access and an array of amenities including on-site cabin and RV spaces for visiting friends and family. An on-site laundry facility as well as a convenience store and a community club house adds everyday ease, making weekends and extended stays effortless. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or investment opportunity, this home puts you just minutes from the best of Possum Kingdom Lake living. Come enjoy peaceful surroundings, community perks, and endless outdoor recreation- all in one place!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2021
• Listed 113 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 1.4% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.30%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,038
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -20.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Rock Creek Rd #40	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (+13%)	12mo	$129,900	$109	52
201 Rock Creek Rd #39	0.25mi	2/2.0	900 (-15%)	22mo	$120,000	$133	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,439
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $138,276
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,011

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,196	-5% $1,162	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,094	+10% $1,060
Rent	-10% $936	-5% $1,032	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,225	+10% $1,321
Rate	-1.0pp $1,189	-0.5pp $1,159	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,097	+1.0pp $1,066

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-01
   listed $120,000 Active 1086-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

   Welcome to lake life at beautiful Possum Kingdom Lake! This newer 2 bedroom 2 bath ONE OWNER home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and resort style living. Designed with a modern layout, the homes features an open living area, well appointed kitchen, and private bedrooms ideal for relaxing after a day on the water. Situated on a large lot with trees, the backyard offers privacy and a wonderful outdoor fire pit with seating. Located in a vibrant lakefront community, ROCK CREEK CAMP residents enjoy resort style pools, excellent fishing access and an array of amenities including on-site cabin and RV spaces for visiting friends and family. An on-site laundry facility as well as a convenience store and a community club house adds everyday ease, making weekends and extended stays effortless. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or investment opportunity, this home puts you just minutes from the best of Possum Kingdom Lake living. Come enjoy peaceful surroundings, community perks, and endless outdoor recreation- all in one place!

2. 2025-07-23
   listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$764/yr (+$64/mo · 53.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $12,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,962
• After-tax cash flow: $10,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home offers a modern layout and resort-style living, with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It's located in a vibrant lakefront community with amenities and resort-style pools.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal
• Both Upgrade window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Upgrade window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $130,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,432 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.