36912 Conley St · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Property

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1MH
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed (up to 100 lbs); Not in a development

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and metal siding construction; Metal roof; Roof over; Block and slab foundation; Completed condition; Built on 0.22-acre lot
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range (stove/oven); Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $165k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.14%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,576
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37452 Attica Ave	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,028 (+2%)	5mo	$94,000	$91	58
6902 Orlo Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	2mo	$75,000	$68	51
36305 Sunshine Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+11%)	3mo	$80,000	$72	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,245
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,945
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	0.55mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.78mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.98mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	1d	142	1.09mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	1.16mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.20mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	24d	1	1.22mi
36095 Carriage Pine Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,990	$1.36	24d	1	1.23mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	1d	34	1.24mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	1.28mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	1.29mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $165,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   status $165,000 Pending 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 18-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$509
• After-tax cash flow: $4,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-30 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,388 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.