1807 Samford Ave · Albany, GA 31707

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1960 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable home! Nice location! This home offers 988 sq ft of living space, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. This home could use some updating but has so much potential! This home is priced LOW and is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; 1 story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Electric cooktop; Electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($872 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 4.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#371 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dougherty County (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #163 of 174 in GA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.4%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Dougherty County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dougherty County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.76%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,956
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1704 W Highland Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	900 (-9%)	14mo	$78,000	$87	51
1709 Gillespie Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (+6%)	17mo	$80,000	$77	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $22,935
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $72,957
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31707

• Rents YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $380

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 Julia Ave Apt B Albany, GA	2.0	1.0	796	$900	$1.13	20d	1	0.69mi
410 Endicott Ln Albany, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,295	$1.20	20d	1	0.74mi
1502 Gillespie Ave Albany, GA	3.0	1.0	1104	$875	$0.79	20d	1	0.75mi
1308 Maryland Dr Albany, GA	2.0	1.0	988	$750	$0.76	20d	1	0.87mi
2133 W Gordon Ave Albany, GA	2.0	2.0	840	$750	$0.89	20d	1	0.97mi
1214 Gillespie Ave Unit 1 Albany, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	20d	1	0.99mi
1210 Gillespie Ave Unit A Albany, GA	2.0	1.0	650	$550	$0.85	20d	1	1.00mi
309 S Cleveland St Unit 309 Cleveland-A Albany, GA	2.0	1.0	804	$650	$0.81	20d	1	1.29mi
2001 Dawson Rd Albany, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	952	$888	$0.93	20d	7	1.40mi
1314 9th Ave Albany, GA	3.0	1.0	1090	$1,000	$0.92	20d	1	1.42mi
921 W 4th Ave Unit A Albany, GA	1.0	1.0	775	$525	$0.68	20d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $39,900
3. 2026-03-18
   status Active
4. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-09
   listed $49,900 Active
6. 2025-09-24
   soldstatus $1,038,000
7. 2022-08-01
   soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$838
• − Management: −$838
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $4,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dougherty County
• NCES district ID: 1301830
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,105
• Composite: 11.31/100
• National rank: #9716
• State rank: #163 of 174 in GA

Livability — Albany

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #18903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albany, GA
• County: Dougherty County · 89,040 people
• City population: 89,040
• Metro: Albany, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,679
• Household income: $50,862
• Rent vs Own: 57.3% rent · 42.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1572.0

Population outlook (Dougherty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,551 people
• By 2030: 80,637 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 72,090 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 64,056 · -24.2%
• By 2075: 46,332 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 33,127 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dougherty

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.1) · D 70.4% · R 29.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 41.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.1 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+38.3 2012: D+39.0 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.86%
• Current HPI: 173.4443
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Metro: Albany, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-84.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — SWGABOR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $39,900 SWGABOR
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — SWGABOR
• 2026-03-09 Pending — SWGABOR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $49,900 SWGABOR
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,038,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $895 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.