156 Creamery Rd Unit TR20 · Mongaup Valley, NY 12783

$295,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is ideally located just minutes from Swan Lake, Bethel Woods Center for the Arts, and Sullivan County Airport and offers easy access to Route 17 for a seamless commute to NYC and nearby towns. Whether you're seeking a serene retreat or a charming primary residence, this property delivers a perfect blend of comfort, land, and location. Land is relatively flat with gentle elevation with the large parcel of SC airport behind. Experience the warmth and potential of 156 Creamery Road. Chalet style High Ranch home offers a harmonious blend of comfort and tranquility, featuring three bedrooms and one and a half baths within its 1,008 square feet of living space. Set on a sprawling 2-acre

Key facts

• Sprawling 2 acre lot
• Outdoor access
• Open kitchen

Tags

• MINUTES FROM SWAN LAKE
• SULLIVAN COUNTY AIRPORT
• EASY ACCESS TO ROUTE 17
• SPRAWLING 2 ACRE LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (1 space); Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Actual condition
• Construction: Frame and T111 construction; Full basement (storage space)
• Exterior features: Frame construction; T111 siding; Not on waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with storage space; Crawl attic; One level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $196,911
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $551,505
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12783

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $670	+0% $568	+5% $466	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $438	+0% $568	+5% $699	+10% $829
Rate	-1.0pp $717	-0.5pp $643	base $568	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
277 Creamery Rd Swan Lake, NY	3.0	2.0	1314	$3,300	$2.51	24d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $295,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $2,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $6,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including a new roof and siding, as well as landscaping improvements. Upgrades to the interior and exterior will significantly enhance its value and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase functionality and appeal
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase functionality and appeal ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 453
• Population (ZIP): 1,357

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.43%
• Current HPI: 433.2531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid