14198 Granger Pointe Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$261,890

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,255 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $116/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Grill with friends on the Gateway's covered back patio. Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, the open concept loft and game room make a perfect media space or home office

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Covered back patio
• Open concept loft

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• MAIN FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SINKS
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT LOFT
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,598 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,665
• List price: $261,890
• Delta: -2.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14154 Granger Pointe	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,255 (0%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	96
14305 Grey Pointe	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	0mo	$269,790	$136	76
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	1mo	$264,640	$134	74
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-12%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	73
16238 Parish Pointe Ct	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,574 (+14%)	2mo	$322,540	$125	53
16258 Parish Pointe Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-14%)	1mo	$284,390	$147	52
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-8%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	51
16241 Parish Pointe Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-14%)	2mo	$269,940	$139	50
16213 Parish Pointe Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-14%)	1mo	$268,390	$138	48
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+8%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	46
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-10%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	44
16763 Country Roots Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+14%)	0mo	$336,990	$132	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,328
• Equity at exit: $39,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,724
• Equity at exit: $22,643

Cash invested: $73,329 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,373
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,928/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $261,890

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $252	+0% $162	+5% $71	+10% $-19
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $63	+0% $162	+5% $261	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $229	base $162	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,472
• Closing costs: $7,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	2d	13	0.68mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,890 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,890 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,890 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,890 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,890 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,890 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,890 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,890 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $261,890 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,890 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,890 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,890 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,890 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    status Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Grill with friends on the Gateway's covered back patio. Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, the open concept loft and game room make a perfect media space or home office

15. 2026-04-25
    historical 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Grill with friends on the Gateway's covered back patio. Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, the open concept loft and game room make a perfect media space or home office

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $322,890 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Grill with friends on the Gateway's covered back patio. Inside, the main floor primary suite features dual sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, the open concept loft and game room make a perfect media space or home office

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,928
• − Insurance: −$1,309
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$7,619
• Taxable loss: −$2,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$568
• After-tax cash flow: $2,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers would appreciate updates to the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value ↑
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $322,890 Zillow