38 Walton St · Alexandria Bay, NY 13607

$350,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,192 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1890 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a successful commercial investment in the 1000 Islands, we have one for you. This property is situated on 1.5 acres in the village with a water view of the main channel. The main house features 5 year-round rental units with an additional 8 units that are rented seasonally. This is truly a large parcel that could be developed into condos or motel/ hotel. This location is walking distance to the river, shops, school and downtown. There is plenty of room to add more units & spacious parking. Call now for more details & showing.

Key facts

• Spacious parking
• Water view
• 1.5 acre lot

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE RIVER
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOL
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN
• SPACIOUS PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#915 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Alexandria Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #378 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $169k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $350k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $308,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.19%
• DSCR: 6.13
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $754,136
• Equity at exit: $276,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.80×
• Total profit: $1,744,445
• Equity at exit: $560,667

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13607

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 24.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$726 /mo · $8,714/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,220
• Net cashflow: $9,407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,427

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,605	-5% $9,506	+0% $9,407	+5% $9,308	+10% $9,209
Rent	-10% $8,196	-5% $8,801	+0% $9,407	+5% $10,013	+10% $10,619
Rate	-1.0pp $9,583	-0.5pp $9,496	base $9,407	+0.5pp $9,317	+1.0pp $9,224

13-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 13× units	4	4	$15,340
Total (13 units)			$15,335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $350,000 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $374,900 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Looking for a successful commercial investment in the 1000 Islands, we have one for you. This property is situated on 1.5 acres in the village with a water view of the main channel. The main house features 5 year-round rental units with an additional 8 units that are rented seasonally. This is truly a large parcel that could be developed into condos or motel/ hotel. This location is walking distance to the river, shops, school and downtown. There is plenty of room to add more units & spacious parking. Call now for more details & showing.

16. 2026-03-09
    price $400,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Looking for a successful commercial investment in the 1000 Islands, we have one for you. This property is situated on 1.5 acres in the village with a water view of the main channel. The main house features 5 year-round rental units with an additional 8 units that are rented seasonally. This is truly a large parcel that could be developed into condos or motel/ hotel. This location is walking distance to the river, shops, school and downtown. There is plenty of room to add more units & spacious parking. Call now for more details & showing.

17. 2025-12-16
    price $509,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Looking for a successful commercial investment in the 1000 Islands, we have one for you. This property is situated on 1.5 acres in the village with a water view of the main channel. The main house features 5 year-round rental units with an additional 8 units that are rented seasonally. This is truly a large parcel that could be developed into condos or motel/ hotel. This location is walking distance to the river, shops, school and downtown. There is plenty of room to add more units & spacious parking. Call now for more details & showing.

18. 2025-10-03
    listed $519,000 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Looking for a successful commercial investment in the 1000 Islands, we have one for you. This property is situated on 1.5 acres in the village with a water view of the main channel. The main house features 5 year-round rental units with an additional 8 units that are rented seasonally. This is truly a large parcel that could be developed into condos or motel/ hotel. This location is walking distance to the river, shops, school and downtown. There is plenty of room to add more units & spacious parking. Call now for more details & showing.

19. 2025-09-10
    historical
20. 2025-08-30
    price $559,000
21. 2025-08-25
    price $569,000
22. 2025-08-20
    price $579,000
23. 2025-07-11
    price $589,000
24. 2025-04-24
    price $599,000
25. 2025-03-21
    price $625,000
26. 2024-12-05
    price $650,000
27. 2024-10-23
    price $749,900
28. 2024-09-10
    listed $779,000 Active
29. 2024-09-06
    historical
30. 2024-09-05
    historical
31. 2024-08-07
    price $1,379,000
32. 2024-07-05
    price $1,399,000
33. 2024-03-28
    listed $1,459,000 Active
34. 2023-02-28
    historical
35. 2022-08-11
    price $799,000
36. 2022-06-24
    price $824,000
37. 2022-04-13
    price $844,000
38. 2022-03-02
    status Active
39. 2022-02-25
    historical
40. 2021-08-25
    listed $899,000 Active
41. 2002-09-06
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,714 · $726/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,714 · $726/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $184,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$8,714
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,722
• − Management: −$14,722
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $114,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,438
• After-tax cash flow: $85,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexandria Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602670
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,764
• Composite: 42.98/100
• National rank: #3109
• State rank: #378 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alexandria Bay

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #17923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria Bay, NY
• City population: 2,061
• Population (ZIP): 2,061

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 11% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Current HPI: 365.3737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $374,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $400,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $509,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $519,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $559,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $569,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $579,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $589,000 CNYIS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $599,000 CNYIS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $625,000 CNYIS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $650,000 CNYIS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $749,900 CNYIS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $779,000 CNYIS
• 2024-09-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $1,379,000 CNYIS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $1,399,000 CNYIS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $1,459,000 CNYIS
• 2023-02-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $799,000 CNYIS
• 2022-06-24 Price Changed $824,000 CNYIS
• 2022-04-13 Price Changed $844,000 CNYIS
• 2022-03-02 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2022-02-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-08-25 Listed $899,000 CNYIS
• 2002-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,714 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.