1204 E Mesquite Dr · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,075,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1971 7,800 sqft lot $516/sqft · at area comps Est $1189k · 10% under $218/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled along the golf course within the much-loved guard-gated community of The Boulders, this charming Southwestern residence captures the essence of desert living with breathtaking, unobstructed mountain views. Warm architectural details, including soft adobe lines and inviting outdoor spaces. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen and rare butler's pantry - designed for both style and functionality - with modern finishes, high end appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living areas--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Expansive windows and glass doors frame the dramatic mountain backdrop, filling the home with natural light. Split floorplan boasts a generous guest suite and a primary suite that opens to the oversized patio offering a spa retreat as well as beautifully appointed grilling station. Completing the layout is a delightful office with fireplace and an oversized powder room. Whether enjoying a quiet morning on the patio overlooking the golf course or hosting gatherings under the desert sky, this home offers a rare blend of comfort, charm, and scenic serenity.

Key facts

• Oversized patio
• Butler's pantry
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• OVERSIZED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.07M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $890k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $807k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $807k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $1.07M implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $806,535 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,188,605
• List price: $1,075,000
• Delta: -9.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7451 E Long Rifle Rd	0.27mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,075 (-0%)	15mo	$1,425,000	$687	69
1305 Coyote Pass	0.19mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,236 (+7%)	9mo	$840,000	$376	67
1820 Eagle Claw Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-13%)	6mo	$1,000,000	$550	37
1718 E Staghorn Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,897 (-9%)	18mo	$775,000	$409	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $237,786
• Equity at exit: $684,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $761,364
• Equity at exit: $1,249,467

Cash invested: $301,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,637
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,344 /mo · $16,125/yr
• Insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,694
• Net cashflow: $-1,275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,680

Max offer price $890,439

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $268,750
• Closing costs: $32,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	0.09mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	43d	1	0.30mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	43d	1	0.63mi
1613 N Quartz Valley Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2831	$12,000	$4.24	43d	1	0.68mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.77mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.77mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	3d	1	0.77mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	7d	1	0.77mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	43d	1	0.80mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	11d	1	0.81mi
9165 E Sunflower Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1631	$11,500	$7.05	43d	1	0.94mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	43d	1	0.98mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	43d	1	0.98mi
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	21d	1	1.09mi
6892 E Nightingale Star Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1647	$6,500	$3.95	21d	1	1.10mi
6985 E Purple Shade Cir Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1989	$6,000	$3.02	43d	1	1.11mi
6960 E Whispering Mesquite Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1930	$4,500	$2.33	43d	1	1.14mi
34125 N Boulders Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	3000	$12,500	$4.17	24d	1	1.15mi
7040 E Brilliant Sky Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1974	$6,000	$3.04	2d	1	1.18mi
6876 E Whispering Mesquite Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1905	$6,500	$3.41	43d	1	1.19mi
7466 E High Point Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2823	$13,500	$4.78	43d	1	1.20mi
6884 E Amber Sun Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2547	$9,500	$3.73	43d	1	1.22mi
6879 E Amber Sun Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1955	$5,500	$2.81	43d	1	1.24mi
7051 E Sleepy Owl Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1927	$5,000	$2.59	43d	1	1.25mi
7125 E Canyon Wren Cir Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1974	$6,000	$3.04	43d	1	1.27mi
6751 E Amber Sun Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2386	$7,500	$3.14	43d	1	1.32mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #77 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2276	$12,000	$5.27	24d	1	1.33mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #67 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2448	$12,000	$4.90	43d	1	1.33mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #34 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2229	$12,000	$5.38	43d	1	1.33mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #38 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	3.0	2506	$11,000	$4.39	43d	1	1.33mi
7500 E Boulders Pkwy #72 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2233	$9,300	$4.16	43d	1	1.33mi
7149 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2254	$5,500	$2.44	43d	1	1.35mi
7155 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2161	$6,000	$2.78	43d	1	1.37mi
7872 E Thorntree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2571	$11,500	$4.47	43d	1	1.42mi
34061 N 67th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2393	$7,000	$2.93	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,075,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,075,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-04-07
   status Active 1111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

   Nestled along the golf course within the much-loved guard-gated community of The Boulders, this charming Southwestern residence captures the essence of desert living with breathtaking, unobstructed mountain views. Warm architectural details, including soft adobe lines and inviting outdoor spaces. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen and rare butler's pantry - designed for both style and functionality - with modern finishes, high end appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living areas--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Expansive windows and glass doors frame the dramatic mountain backdrop, filling the home with natural light. Split floorplan boasts a generous guest suite and a primary suite that opens to the oversized patio offering a spa retreat as well as beautifully appointed grilling station. Completing the layout is a delightful office with fireplace and an oversized powder room. Whether enjoying a quiet morning on the patio overlooking the golf course or hosting gatherings under the desert sky, this home offers a rare blend of comfort, charm, and scenic serenity.

4. 2026-03-30
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 1111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

   Nestled along the golf course within the much-loved guard-gated community of The Boulders, this charming Southwestern residence captures the essence of desert living with breathtaking, unobstructed mountain views. Warm architectural details, including soft adobe lines and inviting outdoor spaces. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen and rare butler's pantry - designed for both style and functionality - with modern finishes, high end appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living areas--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Expansive windows and glass doors frame the dramatic mountain backdrop, filling the home with natural light. Split floorplan boasts a generous guest suite and a primary suite that opens to the oversized patio offering a spa retreat as well as beautifully appointed grilling station. Completing the layout is a delightful office with fireplace and an oversized powder room. Whether enjoying a quiet morning on the patio overlooking the golf course or hosting gatherings under the desert sky, this home offers a rare blend of comfort, charm, and scenic serenity.

5. 2026-03-24
   listed $1,075,000 Active 1111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

   Nestled along the golf course within the much-loved guard-gated community of The Boulders, this charming Southwestern residence captures the essence of desert living with breathtaking, unobstructed mountain views. Warm architectural details, including soft adobe lines and inviting outdoor spaces. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen and rare butler's pantry - designed for both style and functionality - with modern finishes, high end appliances, and a seamless flow into the main living areas--perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Expansive windows and glass doors frame the dramatic mountain backdrop, filling the home with natural light. Split floorplan boasts a generous guest suite and a primary suite that opens to the oversized patio offering a spa retreat as well as beautifully appointed grilling station. Completing the layout is a delightful office with fireplace and an oversized powder room. Whether enjoying a quiet morning on the patio overlooking the golf course or hosting gatherings under the desert sky, this home offers a rare blend of comfort, charm, and scenic serenity.

6. 2005-06-24
   soldstatus $450,000 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   GREAT VIEWS FROM THIS CHARMING BOULDERS VILLA OF THE 7TH FAIRWAY OF THE NORTH CLASS AND OF BLACK MOUNTAIN. OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/VAULTED BEAMED CEILING IN GREAT ROOM, SALTILLO TILE THROUGHOUT. SOME NEW APPLIANCES. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED IN FRONT AND REAR PATIO. MEMBERSHIP IN THE BOULDERS CLUB IS AVAILABLE AND OPTIONAL.

7. 2005-06-24
   soldstatus $450,000

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   GREAT VIEWS FROM THIS CHARMING BOULDERS VILLA OF THE 7TH FAIRWAY OF THE NORTH CLASS AND OF BLACK MOUNTAIN. OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/VAULTED BEAMED CEILING IN GREAT ROOM, SALTILLO TILE THROUGHOUT. SOME NEW APPLIANCES. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED IN FRONT AND REAR PATIO. MEMBERSHIP IN THE BOULDERS CLUB IS AVAILABLE AND OPTIONAL.

8. 2005-04-25
   listed $469,000 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   GREAT VIEWS FROM THIS CHARMING BOULDERS VILLA OF THE 7TH FAIRWAY OF THE NORTH CLASS AND OF BLACK MOUNTAIN. OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/VAULTED BEAMED CEILING IN GREAT ROOM, SALTILLO TILE THROUGHOUT. SOME NEW APPLIANCES. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED IN FRONT AND REAR PATIO. MEMBERSHIP IN THE BOULDERS CLUB IS AVAILABLE AND OPTIONAL.

9. 1994-04-25
   soldstatus $206,770

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$60,217
• − Property taxes: −$16,125
• − Insurance: −$5,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,743
• − Management: −$7,743
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$31,273
• Taxable loss: −$34,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+419.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $1,075,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-24 Sold (MLS) $450,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-25 Listed $469,000 ARMLS
• 1994-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $206,770 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.